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000
FXUS64 KFWD 162348
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Tomorrow Night/

Another warm day is coming to an end across North and Central
Texas with lows tonight expected to remain mild in the mid to
upper 60s and low 70s. Increasing surface moisture will allow for
another night of stratus to overtake the region as a weak surface
boundary gradually recedes west. Clouds will linger through
Wednesday out ahead of this boundary, with a low chance for
isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon across our southwestern
counties. Should any storms develop, they will likely remain sub-
severe and limited in coverage as they will be short-lived due to
a somewhat unfavorable storm environment.

Temperatures will rise across the region once again through
Wednesday into the upper 70s and low 80s, with a few spots across
our west reaching near the 90 degree mark. While much of the
region will remain under cloud cover, any locations that
experience clearing will warm quickly through the afternoon. It is
possible that cloud cover will linger through peak heating hours,
especially across East Texas, which would result in more subdued
high temperatures. Temperatures through Wednesday evening will
remain mild once again, ranging in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/
Update:

The forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track,
thus, the previous weather discussion is still valid. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage along and ahead of a
dryline and strong cold front progged to arrive Thursday. Low-
level convergence and moisture pooling along the boundary combined
with strong surface heating should be sufficient for thunderstorm
development by mid-afternoon. Though shear will mostly be modest,
the pre-storm environment should still be favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail. Given the
unseasonably hot temperatures, sub-cloud evaporation will be
efficient and will likely result in downdraft acceleration and a
damaging wind threat with the stronger cells. By this weekend,
isentropic ascent over the frontal surface...influenced by a
series of weak mid-level disturbances shifting across the Southern
Plains...will result in periods of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Given last month’s well-above normal rainfall
totals, the soils in many areas remain vulnerable to rapid surface
runoff. Flash and minor river flooding may occur this weekend,
particularly across portions of North and East Texas.

12

Previous Discussion:

/Wednesday night through Monday/

Zonal flow aloft will set up the second half of the week,
resulting in a deepening surface lee trough across the Central
High Plains. An influx of Gulf moisture, coupled with the passing
of a few shortwaves, may produce a few showers Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Better storm chances will arrive when a
dryline and cold front move into North Texas Thursday
afternoon/night. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of
these surface features and very warm temperatures (highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s) will yield plenty of instability in the
warm sector. Models are also indicating there will be enough shear
to sustain updrafts likely resulting in strong to severe storms.
Right now it appears the biggest threat for storms will be north
of the I-20 corridor but this is all dependent on just how far the
dryline mixes east and how far south the cold front moves. Storm
chances will temporarily end Thursday night/Friday morning with
the arrival of slightly drier air. However, models continue to
point towards an overrunning pattern setting up Friday night
through the weekend which will produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms and a potential for heavy rainfall. We will keep
high PoPs through Saturday and decrease them Sunday when the
shortwave trough axis passes to the east. The start of the work
week should be rain-free but it does look like more rain will
return by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will be warm Wednesday night and Thursday with lows
in the 60s to around 70 and highs from the mid 80s to the lower
90s. Temperatures will be cooler on the weekend due to cloud
cover, cold air advection behind the front, and plenty of rain-
cooled air. The coolest day will be Sunday with highs staying in
the 60s and lows Sunday night falling into the 40s and lower 50s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR Ceilings Through Tomorrow Afternoon.

VFR conditions will generally prevail across all TAF sites
through the afternoon and evening hours. MVFR ceilings will
gradually work their way northward once again as a surface
boundary retreats to the northwest. VFR ceilings will drop to MVFR
through 08z with a high chance of IFR working their way into the
region around 10-15z. Ceilings will improve through Wednesday
afternoon with VFR conditions returning across North and Central
Texas around 19-20z. There is a low chance (10-20%) for isolated
thunderstorms to develop southwest of the D10 airspace through
tomorrow afternoon, but any storms will likely fall apart well
before any impacts occur across the TAF sites.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  88  70  89  59 /   0   5   5  30  30
Waco                70  85  70  88  64 /   0  10  10  30  30
Paris               67  82  67  85  58 /  10   0  10  40  50
Denton              64  87  68  87  55 /   0   5   5  30  30
McKinney            68  84  69  86  57 /   0   5   5  30  40
Dallas              69  87  70  89  61 /   0   5   5  30  30
Terrell             69  83  69  85  59 /   5   5   5  30  40
Corsicana           71  83  71  87  64 /   5   5   5  20  30
Temple              69  84  69  88  63 /   0  10  10  20  20
Mineral Wells       62  88  67  89  55 /   0  10   5  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$