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000
FXUS64 KFWD 121013 AAE
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
513 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Current forecast looks representative and no adjustments are
needed with this update.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Moving Into The Weekend/

A persistent mid level ridge and rapid return to breezy southerly
winds this afternoon will result in a warm up, with even warmer
temperatures and stronger southerly winds on Saturday. The gradual
onset of warm advection and increase of low level moisture are
expected to be the eventual primer for the next strong storm
system Monday (discussed in more in detail in the long term
discussion). A few nebulous mid level impulses will traverse the
stagnant upper ridge in place, however this will result in only
periods of cirrus traversing the area as the environment below
500mb will be extremely dry.

Both low and high temperatures will be on the upswing the next 48
hours. Lows primarily in the 50s will prevail by sunrise Saturday
morning, while high temperatures both days range between the mid
70s to the mid 80s. The warmest temperatures are expected to occur
across the higher terrain of the Big Country and far western
Central Texas, as these areas will be in the vicinity of the
warmest 925mb and 850mb temperature. After near calm winds this
morning, look for southerly winds between 10 and 20 mph to return
this afternoon and remain between 10 to 15 mph tonight. Southerly
winds will be even stronger with gusts to between 30 and 35 mph on
Saturday which will be just below Wind Advisory criteria.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

A potent upper low will be deepening across the western CONUS by
the end of the weekend with a preceding warm advection regime in
place across the Southern and Central Plains. This will lead to
progressively more robust moisture return by Sunday as the 60F
isodrosotherm makes a return into North Texas. Seasonably warm and
more humid weather will be the result heading into the workweek
with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. The eventual arrival of
the upper low into the Plains will culminate in widespread
thunderstorm activity late Monday afternoon and evening as its
strong lift interacts with robust moisture content and sharpening
surface boundaries. Convection is likely to initiate
west/northwest of the forecast area late Monday afternoon/evening
along this system`s Pacific front, eventually progressing eastward
into North Texas.

Convective mode for this episode of strong or severe convection
remains uncertain at this time. While a sufficient shear and
instability parameter space exists for an initial supercellular
mode, it`s unclear how much upscale growth may occur prior to
convection arriving in North Texas. Based on the overall flow
regime, it is likely that some convective inhibition will be
present since we`ll remain removed from the strongest height falls
and synoptic scale ascent. Weak residual capping may cause
coverage to remain more isolated if storms do remain discrete, or
it may cause a weakening of a linear system if one has already
developed prior to entering this slightly less favorable
environment. We`ll have a better idea of convective mode and
potential hazards as this portion of the forecast enters the range
of higher resolution guidance. At this time, this does appear to
be predominantly a late-evening and overnight event for our
forecast area.

Some shower and thunderstorm activity could linger into Tuesday
morning depending on the speed of the Pacific front`s eastward
advance, as well as the intensity/speed/coverage of attendant
convection. However, following its eastward departure, a brief
warm and dry midweek period will follow with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. By Thursday, most ensemble guidance points towards
a fairly strong cold front diving southward into the area, perhaps
setting up an overrunning regime during the late week period with
fairly widespread rain chances and below-normal temperatures.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

No concerns. VFR with increasing cirrus through tonight,
especially Central Texas.

Sustained surface winds are anticipated to be southerly 10 to 15
kts with a few gusts > 20 kts by afternoon and continue into
tonight, as the pressure gradient continues tightening with
increasing southerly flow within the 925mb layer.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  58  82  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                77  56  77  61  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  54  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              78  57  81  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            78  58  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  59  81  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  55  79  61  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           78  55  80  63  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              78  56  77  61  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       82  56  84  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$