Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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059 FXUS63 KGID 021142 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 642 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drying out and breezy today. Northern and western areas could see some very patchy frost tonight. - Next chance for severe weather is Friday evening into Friday night as a cold front moves through the area. - Mostly dry weekend, with only low chance for showers/t-storms Sunday afternoon. - Better chance for thunderstorms (some severe) arrives on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Remaining showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by sunrise, and any redevelopment should occur to our southeast this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable today (highs in the 60s to low 70s), but breezy northwest winds behind the cold front will make it feel a bit cooler. Afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPH are expected. The drier airmass will allow temperatures to fall quickly this evening into tonight, but increasing high clouds early Friday morning should prevent temperatures from falling below 40 degrees in most spots. That said, our typically cold spots (Dawson, Valley, Greeley counties) could see temperatures dip into the mid-upper 30s. Patchy frost is possible in these areas, but there is not enough confidence in coverage/impacts to issue an advisory. Southerly winds return on Friday ahead of our next shortwave and associated cold front. Temperatures should be able to climb to the upper 60s and low 70s. Low chances for a few thunderstorms arrive in the early evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Deep layer shear would be favorable for supercell development, but instability is more questionable. Near-term models vary widely on how much moisture returns during the daytime on Friday. The 03 RAP shows almost 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in our southern zones by 6pm Friday, while the NAMnest shows effectively zero. Regardless of the pre-frontal development, models are pretty consistently showing a line of convection along the cold front that pushes through the area during the evening and overnight. As such, SPC has maintained a "Marginal" risk for most of our area, with the potential for severe wind gusts and hail. The weekend looks mostly dry, although there is a low chance (20-40%) that a few few showers and storms could sneak into mainly southern portions of the area on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures over the weekend will be near to slightly below normal (highs in the 60s to near 70). A more robust upper low then pushes into the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing us another chance for thunderstorms. Of course, convective details remain quite uncertain at this range, but the pattern alone would be favorable for at least some severe storms over at least the eastern halves of Nebraska and Kansas. The forecast becomes more uncertain for the middle of next week onward as deterministic models show this upper system cutting off and persisting over the northern Plains. Ensembles actually favor below normal precipitation from the middle to end of next week (May 7 to 11), but of course that doesn`t mean we will be completely quiet and dry. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 IFR stratus persists behind the thunderstorms that have now exited the area. Ceilings gradually improve this morning, but may not go VFR until close to 16 or 17Z. Mostly clear skies then prevail through the afternoon and into tonight before more high clouds move back in early Friday morning. Winds today will be out of the northwest with gusts around 25kts. Winds go light/variable this evening before turning back to the south for Friday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels