Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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095 FXUS63 KGRR 010558 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 158 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds and a shower risk later tonight into Wednesday morning - Warmer than normal temperatures ahead - Several Chances for showers and storms ahead && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 - Gusty winds and a shower risk later tonight into Wednesday morning A 40 knot low level jet moves into the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. This feature advects in a moist air mass with PWAT values progged to reach around an inch based off of the ensemble guidance. Given the moisture and lift, some shower activity is expected to track in from the west as this the low level jet arrives. If the upstream convection that develops this evening diminishes slower than expected, a few thunderstorms could make it across the lake, mainly around daybreak. SPC HREF MU CAPE values is still struggling to show much if any instability so we will keep the precipitation as showers for now. Any heavier downpour could lead to gusty winds. A better shot for gusty winds will be as mixing develops Wednesday morning. Base on projected heights and the winds at those levels, we should see gusts topping 30 mph at times. - Warmer than normal temperatures ahead Overall zonal flow will continue through the rest of the week and into next week. The positive height anomalies favor continued warm air advection through this period. Latest Ensembles and anomalies continue to show a prolonged period of +1 or greater anomalous warmth into next week. That should keep daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This correlates to Highs in the 70s through the weekend. - Several Chances for showers and storms ahead A strong frontal boundary in between a retreating high and a large upper level low moving along the Canada border should provide enough moisture and instability for showers and storms late Thursday night into Friday morning. The bulk of the cold air associated with that system should remain north. There is a strong short wave associated with that system and given the current gradient there should be some mid to low level winds should provide enough shear for convection. Latest mid range models continues to downplay the moisture associated with it through there remains PWATS of an inch to 1.25 inches. Another opportunity for precipitation will come in the form of a tertiary trough on the back side of the above mentioned upper level low. As that low exits to the northeast it will swing an elongating trough through the Great Lakes. Behind that trough is some cold air that though above freezing, current 850 mb temps have it +2 to +3C which is should allow for a decent cold frontal boundary that could aid convection. So isolated storms are possible at this point, however it is a ways ahead so confidence is low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 A brief period of MVFR cigs is possible through mid morning as a band of weakening rain showers passes through the region. Otherwise VFR weather will prevail the next 24 hours with winds being the primary aviation impact. Initially a period of LLWS can be expected through daybreak as sfc winds increase out of the southeast to 10-15 kts yet winds just above the sfc sfc ramp up considerably out of the southwest to near 40 kts. After 12-13Z deeper mixing behind a sfc cold frontal passage will promote strong gusty west-southwest sfc winds to 30 kts which become west-northwest in the afternoon. Winds diminishing late in the day and especially after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A low level jet will be moving into the nearshore zones overnight and Wednesday morning. This feature will support increasing winds and building waves. The flow will initially be south southeast later tonight but it will veer to the southwest during the morning. We will issue a small craft advisory for most marine zones as a result. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJS/Ceru AVIATION...Meade MARINE...MJS