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000
FXUS62 KGSP 171824
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid weather continues with showers and thunderstorms
possible through Friday, as a weak front could reaches the area.
Much cooler weather returns over the weekend, with a chance of rain
returning by Sunday and into the beginning of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday: Showers ahead of a weak short wave will move
into the area during the afternoon and out of the area by late
evening. A thunderstorm or two is possible, but chance of any severe
storms or heavy rainfall is low. Gusty S to SW winds will continue
ahead of the showers with wind becoming light as the showers depart.
Dry high pressure and upper ridge return on Thursday with lighter
winds. Lows tonight around 10 degrees above normal and highs
Thursday around 15 degrees above normal. Right now, it appears that
only GSP will threaten a record high with AVL and CLT having much
higher records, both set in 1896.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday: Continuing with a rather uneventful short
term. Current trends have a weak ridge sliding off the coast at the
beginning of the period, replaced with a weak cold front crossing
the area, or at least attempting to. By Friday, it`s possible the
weak cold front could extend into the CWA and at least bring a
slight chance for precip. The problem is the extremely dry BL.
Modeled soundings show a strong inverted-V extending from 800mb to
the surface. While there is minimal instability, any precip that
does develop aloft will fall into a very dry layer and evaporate.
Virga will likely be the result of this, but if the layer can become
more saturated, measurable rainfall could occur. These amounts would
be small with the better chances for any worthwhile amounts being in
the far western fringe of the NC mountains. Confidence isn`t high
for this. As far as convection, the GFS shows better instability but
also high amounts of DCAPE. There also looks to be minimal forcing
available with intermittent DPVA across the CWA. Can`t rule out an
isolated storm but with the higher DCAPE, quickly decaying storms
could produce strong winds with any outflow. After that, flow aloft
turns more quasi-zonal through the end of the period. Friday temps
will be warmer than Saturday, as the weakened boundary will bring
slightly cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday: Out west, an amplifying ridge builds in and
continues the dry spell. A strong sfc high develops over the central
CONUS Saturday night and turns winds N/NE as the high progresses
eastward. Models suggest an in-situ wedge developing and keep temps
mild Sunday and Monday. A shortwave could traverse the area bringing
a slight chance for precip late Sunday. By the start of the work
week, a low attempts to develop over the central plains. Guidance
diverges on this potential system. The GFS has a split trough diving
southward over the CWA Monday afternoon through Tuesday, where the
Euro has minimal disturbance in the flow. Either way, this wouldn`t
be a system of significant impacts and if it develops, could bring
some rainfall. How much is yet to be determined as the low could
remain elusive. By Tuesday, the ridge axis over the central CONUS
amplifies, turning flow aloft out of the NW. Current trends keep the
area mostly dry but will continue to watch for any signs of precip.
Overall, the pattern keeps a mild and tame look. Winds should become
more W/SW once again by the end of the period. The warmest day looks
to be Saturday with highs reaching the 80s. Temperatures drop for
Sunday and Monday into the upper 60s from the N/NE sfc flow. Lows
appear to remain above freezing through the period, with Monday
night dipping into the low 40s across the Piedmont. Temps at the
highest mountain elevations could come close to freezing but
confidence is low. However, can`t rule out some potential minor
frost.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Thickening and lowering clouds expected into
the evening, but not expecting anything lower than low VFR at the
TAF sites. Low VFR in SHRA, and possibly a TSRA, late this afternoon
and early evening. Gusty S to SW winds also in place into early
evening. Can`t rule out a brief MVFR vsby or cig in any heavier
shower. VFR expected overnight with light winds behind the departing
showers. That said, mountain valley fog possible, but unlikely at
KAVL. Light W to NW wind and SKC for Thursday.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern with precip chances and periodic
restrictions may develop from Thu night into Monday, but confidence
remains low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1896     44 1921     60 1927     28 1905
                                        1891
   KCLT      93 1896     45 1983     66 1896     32 2001
   KGSP      89 2002     51 1983     66 1927     28 1905
                1967

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...