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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191218
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
718 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Active spring weather pattern expected on SAT:
Slight and Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (levels 2 and 1 of 4)
Marginal Risk of Strong or Severe Storms (level 1 of 5)

Slightly drier/cooler air will be filtering into the northern half of
the CWA (mainly north of the I-10 corridor) through this afternoon as
the cold front slides into SE TX before stalling. South of this boun-
dary, warm/humid conditions will continue. The light WAA showers this
morning could give way to isolated activity along/near this line this
afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will depend on the front, with
highs around 80 behind this front...to the mid and upper 80s ahead of
it. So please continue to be cautious if you are planning on any out-
door activities.

By tonight, the cold front will begin retreating north as the onshore
flow at the low/mid levels begins to strengthen in response to a weak
shortwave trough approaching from the west. This pattern will help to
increase PWs (to 1.8-2") through Sat afternoon/evening. Aloft, models
are indicating the development of a diffluent jet structure across N/
NE portions of the area. And so, these factors combined with the add-
ition of weak impulses aloft and the proximity of the semi-stationary
front, do favor the development of training storms as well as showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall heading into Sat after-
noon. Guidance is continuing to favor locations north of the US-59/I-
69 corridor for the highest POPs...with areas from Brenham to Trinity
as where we could see the more significant rain totals. Activity will
persist/regenerate into Sat night across much of SE TX, so the threat
of flooding/heavy rains could be compounded. Current thinking has the
rain totals averaging from 1-3" north of US-59/I-69...from 0.25-1" to
the south. Locally higher amounts will be possible. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

By Sunday morning, the aforementioned surface cold front will
approach the coast and depart offshore, with shower and
thunderstorm development ceasing as this occurs. As surface high
pressure moves into the area behind the boundary along with a
steady NE surface flow, we`ll see an influx of cooler and drier
air that should provide a few days of pleasant conditions heading
into the beginning of next week. Highs on Sunday are unlikely to
eclipse 70, with lingering cloud cover in the wake of the frontal
passage working to inhibit daytime heating while CAA provides a
persistent supply of cooler air. Overnight lows should dip into
the upper 40s/low 50s for most locations, with clearer skies
providing efficient radiative cooling. Pleasant conditions linger
into the start of next week with highs on Monday sitting in the
70s, lows dropping into the 50s, and surface dew points in the
upper 40s.

The eastward exit of surface high pressure on Tuesday will bring
about a return to an onshore flow regime, with southeast winds
increasing by mid-week with the development of a lee cyclone over SW
Colorado and the resultant tightening of the synoptic pressure
gradient. As such, we continue to anticipate steady increases in
both temperatures and moisture levels into the end of next week,
with highs returning to the upper 70s/low 80s on Tuesday and the mid
80s on Wednesday and Thursday. This will be accompanied by a rise in
surface dew points back towards 70. A few shortwaves embedded within
the prevailing midlevel flow will provide some nonzero but
nonetheless meager precipitation chances beginning on Wednesday.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Patchy fog has developed across much of SE TX this morning, with the
visibility at some (mainly inland) terminals down to 1/4 to 1/2 mile
at times. Elsewhere, visibilities are ranging from 4 to 6 miles with
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Conditions are expected to slowly improve by late
morning to early afternoon bringing VFR conditions back to most ter-
minals. However, sites along the coast and across our northern areas
could see lingering MVFR CIGS through the day. Deepening moisture at
the coast and the approach of a cold front, respectively, as the big
reasons. MVFR conditions should return across the area by this even-
ing and persist into the overnight hours. Did keep the mention of at
least VCSH for locations LBX northward during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds, along with the chances for patchy
fog development, will prevail through Saturday as a front remains
stalled to the north of the barrier islands. This boundary will
eventually push through the area on Saturday night, bringing with it
periods of showers and storms that will prevail until Sunday
morning. Moderate NE winds are expected behind the departing
boundary on Sunday, possibly requiring a Small Craft Advisory. Winds
will diminish on Monday with an onshore flow pattern returning on
Tuesday. Onshore winds will gradually increase through the middle of
next week.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  67  78  53 /  10  20  70  90
Houston (IAH)  85  71  82  59 /  20  20  50  80
Galveston (GLS)  79  71  77  62 /  10  10  10  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady