National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHUN 180418
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1118 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Rain chances have dwindled for our local area late this evening.
Not anticipating any more rain until Thursday afternoon (discussed
below). The main concern overnight will be the potential for fog
development. Model guidance indicates that some areas may see
patchy, dense fog by late tonight into early Thursday morning. As
the previous shift mentioned, anticipating any fog development in
the lower elevations and valleys and more of a stratus deck for
higher elevations (like NE AL and Monte Sano). This will be
monitored overnight; however, currently, surface observations show
only a minor reduction is visibility over portions of NE AL and
Cullman County. These are also the areas that saw the most recent
rainfall.

Ultimately, winds are forecast to become light later tonight.
Therefore, the main question will be if cloud cover will hinder
(more clouds) or help (less clouds) fog development. Satellite
imagery indicates continuous clouds upstream, although there are
breaks in the overall cloud cover. We will monitor this overnight;
but, at this point, not expecting widespread dense fog where the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory would be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A subtropical upper level jet brings increased moisture to the TN
Valley along with embedded shortwaves despite a zonal pattern
moving into the weekend. In response to this, daily chances of
rain are forecast to close out the week.

Thursday, instability is forecast to increase through the day with
highs in the mid 80s. There is a low chance of storms in the late
afternoon/early evening hours, lining up with the greater
instability potential (CAPE 900+ J/kg). If these occur, risks
would include hail, gusty to damaging winds, and lightning. An
unorganized line of storms is forecast to move into northern
AL/southern middle TN from the NW later in the night-- accompanied
by PWATs in the 1.4-1.6" range, which would exceed 90th
percentile sounding climatology per BMX. These showers/storms
would be capable of moderate to heavy rainfall, lightning, and
gusty winds. Confidence remains low in severe potential during
the overnight hours as instability decreases to below 500 J/kg.

Low to medium chances (30-50%) of showers/storms continue through
Friday afternoon as a front moves through the area before
decreasing overnight. Low chances (30% or less) return Saturday.
Temperatures behind the front will be cooling for the weekend with
highs in the 60s-70s and lows in the 40s-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cooler and more stable air will arrive on Saturday. But zonal flow
and additional shortwaves will push east from TX through the Gulf
states. Chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
(elevated) will increase substantially Saturday night into Sunday
as the strongest of the shortwaves arrives. The rainfall and
clouds will also keep temperatures much chillier than this past
week, with lows in the 40s Sunday morning and only in the upper
50s to lower 60s Sunday. By Monday morning, lows will be in the
lower 40s for most locations. But then, temperatures modify into
early next week as modest mid and upper level ridging takes place
over the southeast U.S., with highs back fully into the 70s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Low clouds and patchy BR and FG will keep flight weather
conditions MVFR and in some cases IFR through 16-17Z. Patchy FG
will reduce visibility to 1/2SM and less in some areas. Ceilings
will lift or scatter by 16-17Z, bringing back VFR conditions.
Scattered SHRA and TSRA will develop and move into northwest AL by
20Z and move east across the rest of north AL and southern middle
TN between 20-03Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17