Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 232349
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
649 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Overnight, dry weather will continue to remain in place with
clear skies as high pressure influences the region. A Frost
Advisory will be in effect for northern Alabama overnight/early
Sunday morning due to temperatures dropping into the 33-37 degree
range and potential for lighter winds as well as enough sfc
moisture to result in frost formation. While some areas in higher
elevations may not experience frost due to increased wind speeds,
we recommend those with agricultural interests protecting
sensitive vegetation. There is not an advisory out for southern
middle Tennessee at this time due to low confidence in winds
decreasing for frost formation, however, a low chance of frost
continues to exist in these locations as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Sunday, clear conditions continue through the morning hours as
high pressure continues to move eastward. However, cloud cover
will gradually increase from the west throughout the day as a
frontal system approaches the area. This system is an upper level
trough forecast to form in the lower Plains early in the week and
continue moving northeastward, bringing a cold front sweeping
through the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Ahead of this front, low
to medium storm chances will move into the area on Monday evening
before increasing in chance and coverage overnight into Tuesday.
On Tuesday, high chances (80-90%) of storms are forecast through
the morning hours before gradually decreasing in the afternoon.

The environment is continuing to show lack of instability to
support organized storm growth/severe weather. However, there is a
surplus of shear as well as moisture availability-- allowing for
gusty winds and flooding to be of concern at this time. Monday
night into Tuesday, gradient (non-thunderstorm) winds are forecast
to reach around 35-45 mph. Due to this, a Wind Advisory will
likely be needed during this time. PWATs are in the 1.1-1.4" range
within the LREF Grand Ensemble, which are near or exceeding the
90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology. Paired with RH
values above 85% in the low and mid layers of model soundings,
storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Storm Total
Rainfall between 7 PM Monday and 7 AM Wednesday is forecast to be
1.5-2.5" with higher values remaining along and west of I-65. This
rainfall will result in rises on rivers, creeks, and streams as
well as possible flooding in areas of poor drainage.

Otherwise, high temperatures during this timeframe are forecast
to be in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Precipitation will taper off Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
as the front shifts eastward into Georgia and the Carolinas. A
cooler air mass will filter into the region in its wake
Wednesday/Thursday as highs will in the lower 60s will be common
along with lows in the mid/upper 30s. A large area of high
pressure will begin to build in by Friday, allowing for a gradual
warm-up by Friday into the weekend -- along with mostly sunny/dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue at the HSV/MSL terminals overnight,
although a gradual increase in the coverage of high clouds
(embedded within WNW flow aloft) is expected beginning this
evening. Mid/high-level flow will back to WSW shortly after 12Z
Sunday as a shortwave trough begins to lift east-northeastward
into the southern Rockies, and this will support an overcast layer
of cirrostratus for the remainder of the day. NNE sfc winds in
the 10G18 knot range will subside by 2Z and veer to ENE during the
early morning hours. Winds will shift to SE by 15Z as return flow
begins ahead of a developing lee cyclone across eastern CO, with
speeds once again increasing to 10G18 knots.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...70/DD


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