Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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920 FXUS62 KILM 280537 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 137 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north through northeast tonight. A warming trend will develop into next week as the center of the high shifts and anchors off the southeast US coast. A weak cold front will push thru Tue night. A more powerful one with increasing chances for rain will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 500 mb ridge axis will remain oriented N-S across the Carolinas through Sunday. The resulting NW flow along the eastern seaboard will cause surface high pressure to drop from the New England states to off the SE NC coast by Sunday evening. The surface high is producing onshore flow along with enough low- level convergence to pop a few showers across SE NC and across the Pee Dee region this afternoon. However weak instability, shallow moisture and a capping inversion will keep convection low-topped. Ridging aloft will maintain benign weather through Sunday, with overnight lows mid/upper 50s and Sunday highs in the upper 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly quiet short term period with surface high pressure in the area. Mostly clear skies Sun night with some mid-level clouds passing overhead towards Mon AM, lows in the low to mid 50s. The ridge aloft shifts towards the coast through Mon AM as a shortwave trough approaches, the high dipping offshore. Some afternoon cu could develop Mon with highs in the low to mid 80s away from the coast due to the sea breeze. Clear skies with a breeze as the sea breeze looks to continue inland overnight, lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The approaching shortwave looks to be accompanied with a broad area of precip progressing east. Cloud cover should increase late in the day Tues as this approaches, but much of the area should still remain dry through the day. Highs in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low confidence on rainfall amounts associated with the shortwave passing through Tues night but decided to add low precip chances due to the decent forcing with the feature. This feature will move offshore Wed AM with a shortwave ridge building behind the feature, more surface high pressure approaching. Diurnal isolated showers/storms remain possible Wed and Thurs afternoon but better chances will come Fri into Sat due to an approaching cold front and a possibly stalled surface feature. Highs will increase into the mid to upper 80s through the latter half of the week with some cooling possible towards the end of the period due to the cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR this morning with remnant high and mid level clouds passing overhead. Can`t rule out shallow ground fog early this morning with light winds and low level moisture return. Not including fog in the TAF at this time. Shallow convective cumulus will develop this afternoon with light winds as high pressure settles just offshore. Remaining VFR through Sunday night. Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early next week outside of a low chance of morning fog or low cigs each morning. Isolated showers accompanying a CFP possible Tue night. && .MARINE... Through Sunday: High pressure will drop southeastward from New England to off the Carolina coast through Sunday. Easterly winds will veer to the south by late Sunday. Speeds should remain generally 10-15 kt, although a sea breeze circulation will produce some 20 kt gusts within a few miles of shore. 3-4 ft seas will primarily be composed of a ESE swell around 7 sec. Sunday Night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through the period with minimal rain chances expected over the waters, highest chances currently Tues night. S/SW winds 10-15 kts may swing around to the SE late Thursday due to a cold front. Seas 2-3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...21 MARINE...LEW/CRM