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000
FXUS64 KJAN 161747 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The 12Z Tue JAN sounding had a very dry layer beneath a stout cap
at 850mb. It will take some time to saturate this layer and get
measurable precipitation but that`s still expected to occur later
this afternoon in our northwest most zones as a low pressure
system to our west draws closer to our CWA. Elsewhere, despite a
decent amount of cloud cover today, above normal temperatures are
expected and the current forecast did not need changing. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today and tonight: Early morning global guidance shows a 988mb
closed low centered just north of the Four Corners region that
will continue to track east across the Great Plains later this
morning then shifting northeast towards the Great Lakes region
later this afternoon. As the aforementioned sfc low makes its way
across the Plains today, the tail end of this sfc low will attempt
to push a cold front into NW MS this evening, however surface
ridging across our area will hang tough. A breezy southeast to
south winds will develop across our CWA today. This will allow for
an increase of sufficient moisture which will be enough to
support the development of a few isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across our northwest zones this afternoon. Went
ahead and trimmed the gradient wind graphic slightly to keep some
areas northwest of the Natchez Trace included. Expect afternoon
highs to peak in the low to mid 80s. Heading into tonight, the
cold front will push into northern Mississippi as the ridge axis
exits our forecast area and slowly starts to track east towards
Alabama. This will help increase rain chances for areas north of
I- 20. Expect overnight lows to be seasonably warm, some 5-10 deg.
F above normal, in the mid- upper 60s east of I-55 to low 70s to
the northwest. /CR/

Midweek through early next week (Wednesday-next Monday)...

Midweek (Wednesday-Thursday): Synoptic & sfc pattern will consist
of eastward building mean ridge at the sfc & aloft, while low-
level return flow will continue across the area Wednesday.
Vertically stacked cold core low aloft/sfc low will be moving into
the Great Lakes by midweek on Wednesday. Upper low will weaken,
leading to sfc low losing some punch in the Great Lakes. Weak
frontal zone is expected to swing southeast, bringing some light
rain & storm chances areas northwest of the Natchez Trace to Hwy
82 corridor early morning before moving out through Wednesday
aftn. There will be some gradient wind around but not as much as
today. An additional shortwave trough/frontal ascent will occur
around Thursday, where some steeper lapse rates/vertical totals in
mid-upper 20s & 25-30kt flow in the 0-3km & 0-6km layers,
respectively, may support some organized stronger convection.
Can`t rule out some isolated severe potential with hail being the
main concern during this time, but confidence is too low to
introduce in HWO graphics at this time. Seasonably warm conditions
are expected in the midweek timeframe, with highs some +5 deg. F
above normal in the low-mid 80s & lows some 10-15 deg. F above
normal in the mid 60s east of I-55 to mid-upper 60s to the
northwest.

Late week-early next weekend (Friday-Sunday): The region will remain
on the northern fringe of the upper ridge over the Bay of Campeche
region while deep longwave trough/cold core spins over south-central
Canada. Westerly zonal flow will be persistent, with stationary
frontal boundary slowly sagging to the south late week into the
weekend. There could be multi-rounds of rain & storms into late week
& weekend, combined with bulk shear & lapse rates, support some
continued rain & storm potential. Isolated severe storms also can`t
be ruled out during this time. Fcst elements consist of increased
rain & storm chances across the the northern half of the area Friday
before scattered rain & storm chances move in during the weekend.
Seasonably warm conditions are expected Friday with highs in the mid-
upper 80s, before cooling down into late weekend to seasonably cool
in the mid 60s northwest of the Natchez Trace to upper 60s to near
70 degrees F to the southeast by Sunday. Lows will be seasonably
warm both Friday & Saturday mornings in the low-mid 60s before front
moves in through the weekend & more seasonable in the mid to upper
50s by Sunday morning. As the front moves through & high
pressure/dry air settles in, expect some moderation of highs Monday
but seasonably cool, some 5-10 deg. F below normal, by Monday
morning. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions and a gusty south wind 18-24kts wl prevail through
the afternoon. The gusty wind will subside this evening and MVFR
cigs wl redevelop after 06Z. Isolated -TSRA may come in vcty of
GLH and GWO 06Z-08Z. IFR cigs wl be psbl in the se 11Z-13Z but
MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  82  67 /  10  10  10  10
Meridian      86  64  81  65 /   0   0  10  10
Vicksburg     85  69  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   84  65  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       85  68  83  67 /  10   0  10  10
Greenville    83  70  83  68 /  10  40  10  10
Greenwood     83  68  82  67 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/DC/22