Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
794 FXUS62 KKEY 021433 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 This morning`s sounding sampled a decent moisture profile through around 700 mb, with very dry air aloft. This moisture in the lower levels has helped spur on some shallow shower activity within the easterly flow across the Lower Keys, but otherwise, the island chain has remained mostly rain-free. A broad high pressure field extending from the East Coast through the central North Atlantic has kept moderate winds from the east this morning, with a brief lull just after sunrise. Through tonight, winds are expected to increase a few knots as the gradient over the area tightens. Despite the decent moisture depicted by CIMMS MIMIC TPW across and upstream of the Florida Keys, shower activity appears to be less likely through the remainder of the today so have dropped rain chances to 10%. One of the best shots at any measurable rainfall today would be an afternoon cloudline along the Lower Keys, however, flow may be too strong to allow for one to develop. Temperatures will peak peak in the mid 80s, with dew points expected to remain generally in the lower 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, multiple high pressure mergers through the extended forecast will lead to an extensive period of easterly breezes that will generally be moderate but with some fluctuations. Peaks will occur mainly during the nighttime hours, with some lulling during the daytime. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR and easterly near-surface winds will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Early morning and forecast soundings indicate the potential for an afternoon cloud line, but there is not sufficient confidence to include a tempo group. Morning showers will persist in the nearshore waters near EYW and MTH and will begin to clear as winds shift east-southeasterly. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1877, the daily record low temperature of 63F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied as the coldest temperature ever recorded in May. Temperature records in May for Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 85 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest