656
FXUS63 KLBF 141149
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and
  continue into this evening. Some thunderstorms may be strong
  to briefly severe.

- Showers and thunderstorms chances continue Wednesday as a cold
  front crosses the region.

- Warm and drier conditions Thursday and Friday, with highs well
  above average in the low to mid 80s Friday.

- A more active weather pattern returns Saturday night, and
  again Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A shortwave trough was currently analyzed across central
Wyoming and will progress eastward across western South Dakota
and western Nebraska this afternoon. An inverted surface trough
will extend from eastern Colorado into the western Sandhills by
mid afternoon, where highs will warm into the upper 70s to
around 80. Ahead of the surface trough, dewpoints will climb
into the lower 50s, with MLCAPEs near 1000 J/KG. Mid- level flow
increases in response to the approaching shortwave. Deep layer
shear of 30-40kts is expected with a fairly straight line
hodographs on forecast soundings. Isolated thunderstorm
development is possible by mid afternoon near the surface trough
across the western Sandhills, becoming scattered by late
afternoon and early evening, primarily near/east of HWY 83.
Strong to briefly severe storms are supportive, as the
increasing deep layer shear could support some updraft
organization. With pre-storm soundings indicating a fairly dry
airmass up to 700mb, damaging winds should be the primary
threat, although some marginally severe hail may accompany the
strongest storms. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is forecast
by SPC west of Highway 281. All activity will continue to move
east after sunset, while also weakening with the loss of diurnal
heating.

A longwave trough will move into the Dakotas and Wyoming
overnight, pushing a cold front at least halfway through the
area. This will keep chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
to the western Sandhills and southwest after midnight as well.

On Wednesday, this main upper trough will move across Nebraska,
maintaining chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. The
focus for any strong storms will reside across Kansas into
southeast Nebraska, as a cold front moves through western
Nebraska. Highs will be cooler from the mid 60s to low 70s with
partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

After a few lingering showers or storms Wednesday evening,
mainly dry conditions expected Thursday though Friday as mid
level height rises occur. Highs by Friday to warm into the low
to mid 80s.

Storm chances increase Saturday night, and again Sunday night
through Monday as an upper ridge persists across the Southern
Plains and an upper trough develops across the Western U.S. This
will result in a more active weather pattern across the Northern
into the Central Plains. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Saturday to the mid 70s to near 80 Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Winds will be light this morning, generally around 10 kts or
less, out of the south. Winds will be breezy in the afternoon
around 10 to 15 kt with gust of 20 kts. There will be a chance
for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some
storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez