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000
FXUS64 KLCH 192039
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
339 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A warm and humid end to the work week is ongoing across the
forecast area this afternoon, with temperatures currently ranging
from the lower 80s near the coast to the mid to upper 80s further
inland, while dewpoints are in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Skies are
partly to mostly cloudy at this time, while area radar is quiet
apart from some very light echoes on our western edge. Could see a
few more of these very light echoes developing and spreading
eastward into the forecast are over the next few hours, but
for the most part dry weather should continue into this evening.
Tonight, warm and humid conditions will persist, with lows only
expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s, which is around 5 to
10 degrees above climo norms.

Afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front draped from the
eastern Great Lakes region to the Rio Grande Valley, with the
boundary moving through the Ark-La-Tex region over the last few
hours. This front is expected to continue its slow southeastward
progression over the next few hours, before eventually becoming
stalled across CENLA as the boundary becomes oriented parallel to
the flow aloft. Initially this front is not expected to be
accompanied by much precipitation due to decent capping as well as
dry air in the mid-levels however, a few showers cannot be ruled
out tonight especially for CENLA, as ample moisture will be
available overhead.

Moisture will continue to pool overhead tomorrow along and south
of the boundary, with PWATs progged to increase into the 1.6-1.8"
range by the late afternoon/evening hours. Rain chances will remain
fairly minimal throughout tomorrow morning as capping remains in
place, before increasing by the late afternoon into the overnight
period as a shortwave aloft slides overhead from the west. The
combination of this shortwave, the frontal boundary, and the
excessive moisture overhead will result in widespread heavy
rainfall beginning tomorrow late afternoon/evening and continuing
through Sunday morning. Thunderstorm potential looks fairly
minimal, with the main threat/concern looking to be heavy rain
which could lead to localized flooding. WPC has outlined a good
bit of our SE TX counties as well as our northern most LA parishes
in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall tomorrow, while our
south-central LA parishes have been included in the Marginal Risk
for Sunday.

The stalled front eventually gets a push southeastward by early
Sunday thanks to the passing shortwave, which will bring a much
cooler airmass into the region for the second half of the
weekend. Overnight lows tomorrow/Sun morning will fall into the
low 50s inland to mid/upper 50s near the coast, which is just
slightly below seasonal norms. On Sunday, daytime highs will be
well below normal as the combination of CAA, lingering shower
activity, and post-frontal cloud cover hinder warming, with highs
only expected to top out in the low to mid 60s. Lingering precip
behind the front will gradually taper off west to east through
Sunday morning, while cloud cover will likely hang around into the
evening hours until high pressure starts to build overhead from
the north. Sunday night then brings the coldest temps of the
forecast period, with lows in the low 40s to low 50s expected.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

By the beginning of the work week and this long term period, the
cold front will be well off to the east of us with a high pressure
off to the north and west building into the area. Great weather
conditions will stay for this one day with sunny skies, light
northerly winds, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 40s~50s.

Going into Tuesday flow aloft will be out of the WNW and the surface
high pressure will move off to the east of the area. The rest of the
long term will see a warming and moistening trend. Highs on Tuesday
will be back in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s to
60s, with the rest of the days in the long term seeing a daily 2-4
degree increase. Dewpoints will make it back into the 60s, leading
to more humid conditions.

As far as precip goes, we will stay on the dry side for a majority
of the period. There is an outside chance of seeing some isolated
showers and storms as a series of weak shortwaves move through,
however PoPs at the most range from 10-20 percent.


Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings along with light winds will
continue through the afternoon and into tonight. From midnight
through early tomorrow morning patchy fog is expected to develop
along and south of I-10. Most guidance keeps the I-10 terminals
around 3-5SM through this period however, some guidance does
plummet further especially at LCH and BPT so that will be
something to keep an eye on. At the same time, ceilings are
expected to become IFR to MVFR. Fog will burn off post sunrise
tomorrow and ceilings will become MVFR area-wide through the mid
to late morning hours.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Generally light onshore flow will continue through tonight. A weak
front will stall over the region by Saturday, with winds remaining
southeast to east. Shower activity will increase late Saturday
into early Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area,
while the front moves south across the coastal waters. Modest to
strong offshore winds will develop in its wake Sunday morning and
continue into early Monday before diminishing.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  71  49  63 /  30  30  80  40
LCH  69  83  56  66 /   0  20  70  40
LFT  69  84  58  66 /  10  20  70  60
BPT  69  83  57  67 /  10  20  70  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17