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000
FXUS64 KLIX 222037
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A very dry column resides over the region this afternoon under a
very dry northwesterly flow aloft. Gradually, the broad scale
trough will continue to exit stage east and allow for a slightly
more zonal or a progressive upper level flow to develop going into
the second half of the short term period.

Surface high pressure will continue to spread into the region and
over time will continue to exit stage east as well. This will
start to shift the surface flow to a slightly more moist
southeast/return flow. With the trough pushing east and a dry
regime remaining, the only concerns will be temps and winds...and
to some extent RH values from a fire weather perspective. Think
fire weather is a near term (Monday) concern, but this will be
limited with the winds continuing to decrease at the surface. With
high pressure in control winds will be light and variable later
tonight through the end of the period outside of a slight
southeast transition. Finally, with heights gradually rising, a
warming trend will start tomorrow afternoon. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The long/medium range starts out rather quiet with a relatively
light northwest flow aloft taking shape on the eastern periphery
of an upper ridge. A cold front will move southward across the Mid
South and Tennessee River Valley. This front will stall as it
becomes parallel to the H5 mean flow and without much convective
cold pooling to force it southward (and likely held up by the
ridge amplifying just a bit upstream). Regardless, the position of
the front and a gradual uptick in boundary layer moisture
(moisture pooling across the south) and calm overnight/early
morning conditions may lead to fog potential each morning from
Wednesday, Thursday, and maybe even Friday before the low level
flow increases ahead of a front moving into the central Plains
Friday. The parent H5 trough Friday into Saturday rides northeast
from Central TX to the Great Lakes. This will again lead to the
frontal boundary stalling just upstream and this is where any
rainfall would likely occur. Another strong upper level impulse
will begin to round the base of the large scale trough across the
high/central plains next weekend. This may be just strong enough
to force the residual stalled front closer to our region on
Monday. This could be the focus for scattered showers and storms
with the best POPs residing across SW MS Counties. Temperatures
with the return flow will continue to increase gradually through
the long term period. (Frye)


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions anticipated through the cycle. Winds will become
light and variable with time as high pressure moves into the
region. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Northeasterly flow will continue to decrease as surface high
pressure continues to move into the region from the northwest. As
the high moves east of the region late tomorrow or Wednesday,
expect that the surface flow will transition to a more
southeasterly flow. Generally favorable marine conditions are
anticipated Wednesday through at least early Friday before
pressure gradient tightens across the local waters, which will
likely require SCA or Cautionary Headlines by late Friday or
Saturday. (Frye)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  81  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  48  78  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  79  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  76  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  48  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF