Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
475 FXUS63 KLSX 092323 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 623 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers are possible across portions of the area tonight. Thunderstorms return the first half of next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. - Temperatures will be cooler than normal Friday, but seasonable the rest of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Upper trof continues to swing SE into the region this afternoon. As it does, the clouds and showers associated with the trof will also continue to advect into the region. Better coverage of precip shud remain along northeastern portions of the CWA as the vort max moves SE. Going forecast may have too few clouds for Friday. Ample boundary layer moisture shud allow stratus overnight to develop into CU field under the May sun. With sfc ridge building into the region and continued CAA, expect temps on Fri to remain below seasonal avg. Tilly && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A fast moving trof shud brush the area on Sat leaving NW flow over the region. Temps shud return this weekend with ample solar insolation. This trend continues thru the end of the forecast period. Upper low currently over the Rockies ejects into the Plains early next week. Model solns continue to vary next week with differences in phasing of upper level pattern. Nevertheless, pattern shud support more rain compared to dry time. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Primary aviation impact is a shift to northerly winds and MVFR ceilings moving in from the north tonight. These are likely to last into the morning on Friday before clearing. It is possible some areas could see IFR ceilings. Scattered showers across Iowa and northern Illinois will be decreasing in coverage this evening. Quincy is the most likely to be impacted but even here the odds of a category impact are low and if it occurs will be short lived. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX