195
FXUS64 KLUB 291138
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

As of 1 AM CDT, midlevel satellite water vapor analysis shows the
shortwave trough along the New Mexico/Texas state line. Scattered
high clouds from virga showers earlier are moving across West Texas
with subtle lift ahead of the trough. The trough axis will pass over
the forecast area with subsidence and northwesterly flow aloft. Weak
lee troughing will develop this afternoon with mostly light south
southwesterly downsloping winds across the South Plains and Rolling
Plains. Pleasant weather today with sunny skies and warm
temperatures in the 80s. Despite the light winds of less than 15 mph
this afternoon, dry conditions (min RH values of 10 to 15 percent)
will give way to elevated fire weather concerns across the far
southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. Areas off the
Caprock will remain mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s as low level moisture begins to creep back into the Rolling
Plains overnight. On the Caprock temperatures tonight will remain
cooler in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Flow aloft will remain zonal and fairly weak through Tuesday given a
stagnant broad upper low expanding across most of ID/MT/ND. Weak
return flow at the surface will gradually boost dewpoints into the
upper 50s to low 60s off the Caprock during the day Tuesday with a
diffuse dryline taking shape during the afternoon hours. West of the
dryline, near record high temperatures are expected within downslope
surface flow. While ample instability will be present for a severe
storm or two over the Rolling Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening
with MUCAPEs above 2000 J/kg, there appears to be very little in the
way of coherent forcing for ascent with only weak convergence along
the dryline and only a very minor impulse aloft. Storm coverage
Tuesday is therefore currently expected to be isolated at best,
with highest chances over the eastern Rolling Plains. Wednesday
looks like a more favorable day for potential increased storm
coverage as flow aloft begins backing and the nose of a modest
southern stream jet streak lifts towards the region. There are
still notable concerns regarding overall storm coverage given a
continuing lack of strong forcing aloft, but increased
convergence along a sharper dryline should be sufficient for
isolated to scattered storms to develop during the afternoon and
evening mainly along and east of I-27. Compared to Tuesday, these
Wednesday storms also have a better potential of becoming severe
as MUCAPEs rise above 3000 J/kg and effective shear magnitudes
remain near or above 30 kt. With shear vectors roughly
perpendicular to the dryline, storms Wednesday would likely remain
discrete with very large hail the primary hazard. The highest
threat for severe weather on Wednesday currently looks to remain
over the SE TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, although some severe
threat does extend as far west as I-27 and will ultimately depend
on the dryline positioning.

Still a bit of uncertainty for Thursday with models still not in
agreement regarding the timing of a cold front arriving from the
north, as well as if any remnant dryline remains in place. Things
have generally trended drier on Thursday as prefrontal surface
troughing likely pushes the dryline to our east, but enough
uncertainty in this still exists to maintain PoPs on Thursday
afternoon mainly east of I-27 for the potential of a few
additional storms. Cooler (but still near normal) temperatures
then arrive Friday and persist through the weekend. The synoptic
patten will generally support more widespread rain and storm
chances through most of the weekend as unsettled southwest flow
aloft spreads over a moist surface airmass, with some severe
potential still present this weekend especially off the Caprock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all three TAF
sites. Light south southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots will persist
through today and tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Warm and dry conditions this afternoon will give way to low end
elevated fire weather concerns (RFTIs around 1) across the far
southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. Minimum relative
humidity values will be around 10 to 15 percent across the
aforementioned area, along with west southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue mainly across the far
southwest Texas Panhandle on Tuesday where minimum RH values in the
high single digits and wind speeds of 15 to 20 mph will support RFTI
values of 2 to 3. Elevated to potential near-critical conditions
will then return to most areas along the TX/NM state line on
Wednesday as stronger southwest winds near or just above 20 mph
result in RFTI values of 2 to 4. Currently, little or no fire
weather concerns exist along and east of I-27/US-87 given higher
humidity, better fuel moisture, and more advanced green-up.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11