079
FXUS64 KLZK 091053 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
553 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Most of the convection has either dissipated or moved off to the
east/SE early this Thu morning...with a cold front dropping SE
through NWRN sections of the state. Some lingering convection will
remain possible over the next couple hrs across the E/SERN sections.
Expect this front to continue to drop SE throughout the morning
hrs...eventually dropping SE of the state by this evening.

Expect dry conditions for most areas into the afternoon hrs...but an
upper wave will lift east over SWRN sections this afternoon/early
evening...which could generate some scattered convection over the
SWRN/SRN sections. By late tonight into early Fri...flow aloft will
become NWRLY...with precip chances decreasing areawide. Much drier
and slightly cooler air will be seen for Fri as a result. Highs
today will remain in the 70s and 80s...but expect highs to drop into
the upper 60s to upper 70s on Fri. Lows by Fri morning will be in
the low 50s to low 60s. Temps may even be a few deg cooler for Fri
night into Sat morning

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Upper level ridging will be in place across the mid-south to start
off the long term. Beneath this upper ridge, a strong area of
high pressure will settle into the region through the weekend.

Drier, cooler, and more seasonal air will advect into the region
through the weekend. This will feel nice compared to humid
conditions felt of late. This will also serve to help dry out
locations that received plentiful or an overabundance of rainfall
over the past several days.

An upper level trough and closed low will quickly track across the
Rockies and into the Srn Plains over the weekend. The system will
move across the MS Valley going into Monday. This will bring a
return of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Highest PoP
chances should be Monday, with lingering PoPs into Tuesday. A brief
break in rainfall is possible on Wednesday.

Environmental conditions will have to be monitored as we approach
Monday for the possibility of strong to severe weather. At this
time, increasing moisture will be in a race against a fast
approaching upper trough. High temperature through the period should
be in the mid 70s/mid 80s. Lows should be in the mid 50s/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Most convection has moved out of the area this morning...but some
lingering convection could still be seen across far SERN sections
this morning. Mainly dry conditions are expected into the
afternoon hrs...but more precip could be seen late this afternoon
and evening across the SWRN/SRN sections. Some MVFR conditions
may be seen this morning...but expect dominant VFR conditions the
rest of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  55  73  53 /   0  10   0   0
Camden AR         88  61  80  55 /  10  30   0   0
Harrison AR       76  51  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    85  60  79  55 /  20  30   0   0
Little Rock   AR  86  60  77  56 /  10  20   0   0
Monticello AR     88  62  79  57 /  10  30   0   0
Mount Ida AR      83  59  77  53 /  30  30   0   0
Mountain Home AR  78  52  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        84  56  75  54 /  10  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     87  60  78  55 /  10  20   0   0
Russellville AR   83  57  76  52 /  10  20   0   0
Searcy AR         83  58  75  53 /  10  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      85  59  75  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...62