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000
FXUS64 KLZK 140516 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1216 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A calm and drier period is expected in the short term as high
pressure will takeover the weather pattern. Currently, southwest
winds could be gusty through the afternoon hours before becoming
calmer by this evening and overnight. Winds will continue out of the
southwest Sunday afternoon and could be gusty at times.

Temperatures are expected to be more average to slightly above
average this weekend. High temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Precip will largely remain west of the area at the start of the
period as the H500 cyclone continues to work its way from east of
the Four Corners toward the Great Lakes. A sfc cyclone will be in
place over parts of Nebraska with a trailing dryline/cold front
extending south into Texas and Oklahoma. With a broad warm sector in
place, storms are expected to form across the Central/Southern
Plains Monday evening and slowly work their way into western parts
of the state by Tuesday morning. Overall severe wx threat at this
time should remain low.

As Tuesday progresses, the mid-level cyclone will intensify as it
lifts toward the northeast. The cold front will slowly move into
Arkansas and srly winds will really be on the increase as the
pressure gradient intensifies. Td values across the state will
generally be aoa 60 F with some spots taking a run at 70 F by Tue
evening.

Additional storms are expected to develop across the state
from Tuesday afternoon through the evening hours, racing to the
northeast. While instability values continue to vary across
available 12z data, ample shear remains present. Increasing SRH
values, noticeably low LCL heights and forecast hodograph shapes are
indicative of supercells that could produce tornadoes. This may
require an increase in severe probs across parts of the state. At
this time that may be along portions of the I-30/Hwy 67/167
corridor.

Later in the week another cold front is expected to move across the
state beneath a northern stream system. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible before sfc ridging pushes south toward the state
and cooler air moves in. Lows in the 30s F are possible across
northern parts of the state next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Expect dominant VFR conditions to continue through this TAF
period. Some LLWS will be possible overnight as the LLJ increases
over the state. This LLWS will decrease Sun morning...but some
gusty SW winds will be seen near the SFC for Sun afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  81  65  77 /   0   0  20  80
Camden AR         61  80  65  81 /   0   0  10  60
Harrison AR       60  83  64  76 /   0  10  40  90
Hot Springs AR    61  78  65  76 /   0   0  20  80
Little Rock   AR  62  81  66  81 /   0   0  10  80
Monticello AR     61  79  66  81 /   0   0   0  40
Mount Ida AR      61  78  64  76 /   0   0  30  90
Mountain Home AR  61  84  65  76 /   0  10  30  90
Newport AR        61  82  66  79 /   0   0  10  60
Pine Bluff AR     61  80  66  80 /   0   0  10  60
Russellville AR   62  82  66  78 /   0   0  20  80
Searcy AR         60  80  65  78 /   0   0  10  70
Stuttgart AR      62  80  66  80 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...62