Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 232318
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
618 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

19z observations indicate most areas of the state are clear.  An
areas of diminishing MVFR ceilings were noted between Pine Bluff and
Monticello. Slight below normal temperatures were noted.

Precipitation chances will gradually increase during this short term
period.

Low level wind flow will gradually veer to become southerly by the
end of this period. This behavior will support increasing moisture
transport to the state. Approaching upper level energy will support
scattered, generally light perception by late in the period, mainly
for northwest sections of the forecast area. A more pronounced signal
will occur shortly after this particular forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

By Mon morning, a stout mid-level shortwave and associated deep sfc
cyclone will be positioned over the Plains/Midwest. An attendant sfc
cold front will extend Swrd into the Red River Valley with a
pronounced dryline intersecting the front invof central KS. Atop
these features, flow will be quite strong with a 150+ kt upper jet
overspreading the dryline thru the day on Mon. An impressive 70-80+
kts of flow in the H500 layer will similarly move in from the W, all
while 60+ kts of Srly flow in the low-level jet draws Gulf moisture
Nwrd into portions of AR.

As the primary shortwave trough and sfc cyclone lift NE thru Mon
afternoon, the cold front/dryline will push E towards AR. Another
impulse will eject from Nrn Mexico NEwrd into the AR River Valley by
Mon evening and support additional cyclogenesis along the front.
There are still concerns with the Nwrd extent of favorable pre-
frontal moisture return and destabilization, but it is conceivable
(depending on the strength and timing of secondary cyclogenesis)
that current guidance values may be somewhat muted, although overall
confidence in these parameters remains quite low with the highest
probability of viable instability remaining over Srn sections.

Initially iso/sctd WAA-driven convection will increase in coverage
late Mon morning into the afternoon as the aforementioned forcing
moves over the largely uncapped warm sector. Deep-layer shear on the
order of 70+ kts will readily support updraft organization, although
deep-layer flow geometry suggests a largely linear mode with
convection expected to organize along an area of pre-frontal
confluence associated with the secondary sfc cyclone, then sweep
thru from W-to-E Mon afternoon/evening.

Point fcst soundings over the Srn half of AR show very large SRH
values (300+ m^2/s^2) with large, looping hodographs. While
thermodynamic parameters still appear less-than-favorable, strong
dynamic forcing could overcome poor instability and support a
conditional threat for damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes.
There is a small window for more discrete supercell development over
Srn/SErn AR ahead of the main convective line, but uncertainty in
this solution is high. Should this occur, however, hail/tornado
potential will increase for those areas.

Additionally, relatively high PWAT values around 1.5 inches (90th
percentile based on NAEFS climatology), in conjunction with strong
dynamic forcing, will readily support heavy rain with this system.
QPF of 1 to 3 inches (locally higher) is expected with localized
flooding possible, although the progressive nature of this system
will limit an otherwise larger flood concern.

Precip will taper off W-to-E Mon night into early Tues morning as
the synoptic cold front finally pushes thru the area. In its wake,
sfc ridging will build in from the Plains and persist thru the
remainder of the week, all while upper ridging amplifies to our W.
Quiescent weather with gradually moderating temps will result.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Upper level high will build over the terminals tonight before
moving off to the east on Sunday. Only mid to high level moisture
is expected through the period in advance of an approaching
weather system with VFR conditions predominating. Winds will have
an east to southeast component through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     39  63  53  65 /   0   0  40  90
Camden AR         41  65  55  69 /   0  10  20 100
Harrison AR       40  61  50  61 /   0  10  80  90
Hot Springs AR    41  65  54  65 /   0  10  50 100
Little Rock   AR  42  66  56  70 /   0   0  40 100
Monticello AR     43  66  57  72 /   0   0  10  90
Mount Ida AR      42  65  54  64 /   0  10  70  90
Mountain Home AR  39  62  50  62 /   0  10  70  90
Newport AR        39  63  52  66 /   0   0  30  90
Pine Bluff AR     41  64  55  70 /   0   0  10  90
Russellville AR   41  65  54  64 /   0  10  60  90
Searcy AR         38  64  52  66 /   0   0  30  90
Stuttgart AR      41  62  55  67 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...55


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