Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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009 FXUS64 KMAF 280458 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 This afternoon, the dryline has mixed eastward, evidenced by dewpoints in the 20s and lower 30s across much of the area, 40s and lower 50s across far eastern zones, and dewpoints well into the 60s across the Big Country and Concho Valley. The dryline will continue its eastward progression the next several hours, but will sharpen and begin retreating this evening. As the dryline retreats westward into the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, a trough currently located over the Four Corners Region will translate eastward, its Pacific front sweeping across the area after sunset. This Pacific front is progged to meet the retreating dryline, resulting in explosive convection across eastern areas late this evening. CAMs have been consistent in indicating convective initiation around 10 PM CDT, with storms that develop expected to not only rapidly become severe, but also move very quickly to the east as the Pacific front and dryline surge eastward. All severe hazards will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, brief heavy rain, and a tornado threat as low-level shear and helicity increase with the low-level jet. There`s the potential for storms to move east of the area by the time severe thresholds are reached, but the timing and location of onset will make all the difference. The best chance will be from roughly Snyder south- southwestward toward Big Lake, and certainly areas to the east as the front/dryline move across Texas and Oklahoma tonight. In addition to the storm potential this evening, the same warm, dry downsloping southwesterly winds that have mixed the dryline eastward have resulted in critical fire weather conditions from Southeast New Mexico southward to the Big Bend, where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening. More on this can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. Further, winds have become strong across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains where mixing is amplified beneath the aforementioned trough`s attendant 700 mb jet. These winds will continue through the evening before diminishing overnight, with High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remaining in effect. As the trough translates eastward tonight through Sunday morning, quiescent conditions will return, with winds becoming lighter and shifting to the northwest overnight as lows bottom out in the 40s northwest to 50s elsewhere, and a few lower 60s across portions of the Stockton Plateau and along the Rio Grande. Winds remain westerly on Sunday in the wake of the departing system as flow aloft remains quasi-zonal, with temperatures only a degree or two cooler than today in the upper 70s to middle 80s for most. Lows that follow Sunday night will be seasonably cool, once again ranging from the upper 40s to around 60 degrees. After this evening, storm chances are nil. JP && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Dry zonal flow aloft on Monday transitions into weak upper level ridging Tuesday, with a thermal ridge axis setting up over far West Texas. This supports above normal temperatures both afternoons, with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s on Monday and mostly 90s on Tuesday. Surface winds switch more southerly on Tuesday with lee troughing to the north, allowing decent moisture to push back up into the region. This will play a key roll on Wednesday as a shortwave trough embedded in the upper ridge moves across, and afternoon convection may develop off the dryline set up somewhere over our CWA. Recent model runs have pushed the better moisture and storm chances further east, but there remains at least the possibility of some showers/storms Wednesday evening for the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. As this system moves out, a deepening upper level low will trek across the Central Plains, shooting a cold front down into the area late Thursday/early Friday. Temperatures will fall behind the front, but are likely to remain near normal for the beginning of May to finish out the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR prevails with west winds generally under 15 kts through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Strong 20ft winds and critically low humidity today have warranted a Red Flag Warning for SE New Mexico, the Big Bend, and the western higher terrain where RFTIs are 6-7 today. ERCs are in the 50th-75th percentile but fuel moisture remains near normal except for the highest terrain where fuels are dry. While not in the same location as the Red Flag Warning, storms may develop this evening across the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos, some possibly severe, that may bring frequent lightning and gusty and erratic winds. Even as winds die down after sunset, overnight recovery will be poor across the south and west with fair to good out east. Humidity will fall to critical levels again Sunday but lighter 20ft winds should limit fire weather concerns into Monday. Fuels will continue to dry Tuesday and Wednesday with low afternoon humidity both days and increasing dry westerly winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days, and depending on fuel moisture and ERCs, products may be needed for at least one of these days for the western zones. By Thursday, a cold front moving down should bring an uptick in moisture and cooler weather, limiting fire weather concerns for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 54 82 52 89 / 30 0 0 0 Carlsbad 49 82 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 60 88 58 92 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 56 84 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 48 72 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 47 79 48 84 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 43 76 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 82 53 87 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 55 81 54 88 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 51 84 53 90 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...29