846
ACUS11 KWNS 080408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080407
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Texas into Northeast Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 080407Z - 080600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm maturation/intensity remains uncertain, but the
environment would support large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a
low-end tornado risk.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, IR satellite shows deepening
cumulus clouds with some having produced lightning recently. This
development is occurring along the the diffuse cold front.
Convergence along this boundary is quite weak and the low-level jet
is not expected to be overly strong as well. Further, upper-level
forcing will be nebulous at best. All that said, it is not clear
whether convection will be able to mature/intensify. The observed
00Z LZK sounding showed over 2500 J/kg with 46 kts of effective
shear. Should development occur, the environment would be supportive
of large hail (perhaps up to 2 in.), isolated severe gusts, and
perhaps a tornado. The tornado threat will be somewhat conditional
as CIN will increase with time, though slowly given how moist the
environment is. Given the uncertainties and likely limited storm
coverage, a watch is not currently anticipated. Trends will continue
to be monitored, however.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   33529285 32579496 32639556 32979582 33859523 34469398
            34639363 35919164 36279074 36049043 35819028 35469030
            35029060 33529285