196
FXUS64 KMEG 082326
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
626 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will increase and intensify tonight under
a Moderate Risk for severe weather. Destructive winds, very large
hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible. The main line
window of severe weather is from 7 PM tonight to 6 AM tomorrow
morning. After the line exits the region, most of the region will
see dry conditions. North Mississippi may see a shower or
thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon associated with a upper level
disturbance, but a beautiful and dry weekend is in store. Our next
chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will come early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Convection has started to fire up across West Tennessee as of 2 PM.
Pinched in the warm sector of two boundaries is the Mid-South
which has allowed convection to initiate. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread and increase in
intensity this evening ahead of a strong cold front.

Strong upper level divergence with a primed environment will allow
convection to intensify later tonight. Mesoanalysis from the RAP
shows plentiful CAPE values 3000-4000 J/kg, lapse rates around 7
C/km that will continue to steepen, 40-50 kts of effective shear,
and curvature to hodographs. The threats for tonight`s severe weather
threat include destructive winds of 80+mph, quick spin up tornadoes
that could be strong, and significant hail of 2" or greater. Most
likely timing for the main line arrival is as early as 6 PM in
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
The main severe weather window for the entire Mid-South is 7 PM to 6
AM Thursday. Once the sun sets, the LLJ will begin to intensify and
quickly push the line on a south/southeast track across northwest
Alabama and northern Mississippi. A Flood Watch is in effect for the
northeast corner of our CWA in West Tennessee (Benton, Carroll,
Weakley, and Henry counties) as this area has higher probabilities
(40-50%) of receiving 2 or more inches of rain tonight. Elsewhere,
generally 1.5-2" is forecast through tomorrow morning. Locally
higher amounts are possible in any intense updrafts.

As storms have begun to fire up as mentioned above, be sure to
secure loose outdoor items, prepare for power outages, and have your
safe place ready to shelter in when a warning is issued. It is not
safe to be in a manufactured home this evening. Please reach out to
friends, family, neighbors, or local city/county officials to locate
your nearest storm shelter or stay with a friend for a safe space.

The line of storms should clear the area by 7 AM at the latest
Thursday morning. Another upper level disturbance from the Gulf
Region may bring some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening, mainly along and south of Interstate 40. Some
thunderstorms may be strong to severe. On the brighter side, the
weekend looks beautiful with dry and seasonable temperatures in the
70s. Temperatures and dewpoints will be on a slow rise as return
flow settles in ahead of our next system. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will return Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Currently,
no severe weather is anticipated with this system.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Short-term concerns in the 00Z TAF set continue to be the timing
of showers and thunderstorms affecting TAF sites tonight. Latest
model trends suggest the best potential for TS at JBR between
2-5Z, 5-8Z at MEM/MKL, and between 7-10Z at TUP. S winds will
veer NW with an associated cold front tonight. Post-frontal MVFR
ceilings are anticipated late tonight with a return of VFR
conditions towards Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TNZ003-004-021-022.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC