912
FXUS62 KMHX 040541
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
141 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday
before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing
across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will
lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier
conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing
heat and humidity as ridging builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Friday... Stalled front remains draped over our
northern tier as of this update bringing plenty of low stratus
and even some fog across the NOBX and portions of mainland Dare
as of this update. As a matter of fact we currently have
ongoing marine dense fog advisories going through 11PM and an
SPS for fog in the NOBX including Manteo through 12AM for the
threat for patchy areas of fog with visibilities of less than
1/2 mile at times. Will reevaluate later this evening to see if
these need to be extended. Do think fog should lift in the next
few hours, but stratus should remain through the rest of
tonight. Current expectation is for stalled front to remain in
place but for patchy fog and low stratus to continue to march
SW`wards this evening eventually encompassing the entire
forecast area as low level moisture continues to increase and a
low level inversion sets up. We remain dry overall as lows get
into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud
cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold
front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow
expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit
instability development, and with drier air holding on across
the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry
day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated
shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will
remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast
with the onshore flow).

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the
Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the
first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East
Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week
drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity.

Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front
retreats to the north. However this will bring better
moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most
widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected
with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore
early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern
Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally
enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best
chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper
70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level
thicknesses boosting Tuesday`s highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week
as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However,
increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow
will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s
closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and
thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0115 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats overnight with
fog/stratus in place. At best, IFR expected inland with coastal
sites experiencing VLIFR VIS and CIGs. Fog is expected to
dissipate by 13Z, but subVFR CIGs will linger into at least the
late morning with IFR CIGs lifting from W to E between 13-16Z
and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat
afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across
ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but confidence is too low to
include this in the TAFs.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through early next week, however increasingly unsettled
conditions could lead to moments of sub- VFR conditions each
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 1010 PM Friday... Only update since the previous one was
to include a marine dense fog advisory for portions of the NOBX
coastal waters and the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds as latest
webcam imagery and obs have shown continued visibilities of 1
NM or less here. Will reevaluate within the next hour or so but
this marine dense fog advisory may need to be extended further
depending on what obs look like.


Prev Disc...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke
sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from
Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from
westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door
cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts
between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow
results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen
to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain
east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts.
Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight
into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for
coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds,
and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this
weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next
week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW
winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds
increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through
Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/RJ