Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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816 FXUS64 KMOB 062059 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Summer-like weather will continue through Tuesday as shortwave upper level ridging builds across the area. At the sfc, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a moist southerly flow. Tuesday will likely be very similar to today with isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms mainly northwest of I-65 during the afternoon and early evening. Outside of isolated to scattered convection, it will remain warm with highs on Tuesday in the upper 80s to around 90 inland to low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13 && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf will build further north on Wednesday and the associated subsidence will keep conditions dry and warm through the day. High temperatures are expected to be the warmest of the year so far with values rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s inland with middle 80s along the immediate coast. It will feel even warmer given the humid conditions in place with heat index values climbing into the middle and upper 90s for most locations Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be rather mild with temperatures falling only into the lower and middle 70s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. We begin to transition into a more unsettled pattern Wednesday night through the later part of the work week as the upper ridge flattens out and flow aloft becomes more zonal. At the same time, a longwave trough will sweep across the Midwest and over the eastern US with a lead shortwave feature moving over the local area Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Down at the surface, a low pressure system will lift northeastward across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region with its associated cold front expected to push through the area on Friday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase mainly for inland areas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a weakening cluster of storms approaches from the northwest. There is still some uncertainty with how this early convection will impact storms later in the day, but the general consensus is that a very warm and unstable airmass will develop on Thursday with SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/Kg given the persistent onshore flow ahead of the front. Highs on Thursday are also expected to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. This warm and unstable airmass combined with the shortwave aloft will bring another round of showers and storms into the area Thursday evening and into early Friday morning as the front pushes into the area. Increasing deep layer shear of 50-60 knots combined with the instability could lead to some organized severe potential Thursday evening into early Friday morning potentially in the form on an MCS with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. The cold front will continue to push through the local area on Friday with dry conditions expected by early Friday evening. Cooler temperatures are anticipated behind the boundary with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry conditions likely persist through much of the weekend, although if the front tries to lift northward then areas along the coast could see a few showers or storms on Sunday and Monday. /14 && .MARINE... Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 88 73 87 73 88 68 83 / 0 10 0 0 0 30 50 30 Pensacola 73 85 74 85 75 86 71 82 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 40 40 Destin 73 83 75 84 75 85 72 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 50 Evergreen 67 89 69 90 70 90 66 81 / 0 20 0 10 10 50 60 50 Waynesboro 68 89 70 91 71 90 63 80 / 0 40 0 10 10 50 60 20 Camden 67 89 69 90 70 88 63 79 / 0 30 10 10 20 60 60 40 Crestview 67 89 68 89 70 89 66 84 / 0 10 0 10 0 30 40 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob