Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
000
FNUS73 KOAX 131244
FWSOAX
Spot Forecast for Gee Property Wildfire...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
744 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 CDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Winds are out of the southeast this morning and will stay mainly
out of the south today with occasional gusts up to 25 mph between
9 AM and 12 PM. Otherwise, winds will be lighter with gusts in the
10 to 15 mph range, turning to the southwest by afternoon. Mixing
depth may become very deep after 4 PM, possibly greater than
10,000 feet, and if this occurs, could see a few more hours of
wind gusts up to 22 mph, mainly after 4 PM. This scenario would
also lead to lower RH, perhaps as low as 17 percent. Expect a wind
shift out of the northwest between 11 PM and 2 AM, turning out of
the northeast on Sunday morning.
Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 25 mph.
Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 17 percent.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (60-70 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 11 mph with gusts to around 16
mph.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to around
26 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 15 mph with gusts to around
21 mph.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (69800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................8.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3 5 13 30 31 46 42 41 56 69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............50 56 61 65 70 74 77 80 81 82
RH..............52 47 44 41 38 34 31 28 26 24
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..10 12 13 12 12 12 13 14 13 12
20 FT wind gust.16 21 19 18 17 17 17 18 18 16
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.8 9 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 9
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 16 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12
Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S S S S S
Surface wnd spd.13 15 16 15 15 15 16 18 16 15
Surface wnd gst.20 26 24 22 21 21 21 22 22 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.1
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.18 21 20 20 18 21 21 22 22 22
GFDI............3 6 7 7 7 8 9 12 12 11
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
SDspl kt-ft/100012 16 22 28 35 43 57 68 70 53
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 8 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then shifting to the north
after 3 am.
Surface winds (mph).South winds around 14 mph decreasing to 6 to 10
mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
west 6 to 8 mph late in the evening, then north
after 3 am.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 12 mph decreasing to 5 to 9
mph early in the evening, then becoming south
around 5 mph late in the evening shifting to the
west 5 to 6 mph shifting to the northwest after
3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 21 mph shifting to the southwest 7
to 9 mph early in the evening, then shifting to
the west around 9 mph after 3 am shifting to
the northwest 8 to 9 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
GFDI................6.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........66 60 42 22 11 3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............82 73 68 64 60 56
RH..............24 33 40 46 53 62
20 ft wind......S 11 S 6 S 4 S 5 SW 5 NW 5
20 ft wind gust.16 8 6 6 6 7
Eye level wind..S 8 S 4 S 3 S 4 SW 4 NW 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 6 5 5 5 5
Surface wind....S 14 S 8 S 5 S 6 SW 6 NW 6
Surface wnd gst.20 10 8 8 8 9
Mix hgt (ft)....3800 400 400 400 400 400
Transport wind..SW 21 S 9 S 7 SW 8 SW 8 NW 8
GFDI............10 3 2 2 1 1
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6
SDspl kt-ft/100029 1 3 2 3 3
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds around 4 mph.
Surface winds (mph).Northeast winds around 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (64800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................3.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........2 4 5 3 2 2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............53 55 66 75 80 82
RH..............69 72 52 36 26 23
20 ft wind......N 6 N 6 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6
20 ft wind gust.8 8 10 11 11 10
Eye level wind..N 4 N 4 NE 4 NE 4 NE 4 NE 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.6 6 8 8 8 8
Surface wind....N 8 N 8 NE 8 NE 8 NE 8 NE 8
Surface wnd gst.10 10 13 14 14 13
Mix hgt (ft)....400 500 1300 3700 5000 5200
Transport wind..N 9 N 14 N 17 N 17 N 15 N 13
GFDI............1 1 2 4 5 5
Haines index....6 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/10002 7 20 49 65 57
$$
Forecaster...McCoy
Requested by...Jeff Seago
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410602.0/OAX
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeffrey.seago@dnr.iowa.gov