Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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611 FXUS64 KOUN 051917 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 217 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 -Significant severe weather is expected across the entire area Monday early afternoon into the overnight hours -Vary large hail (softball size or larger) and significant, long- tracked tornadoes, could accompany ANY storm that develops within Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas Monday afternoon and evening. -Have your severe weather plan in place NOW and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings! 12Z RAOBs this morning from FWD down to CRP show deep tropospheric moisture at least through the 700-500 mb layer. A closed mid-level low, currently approaching the Desert Southwest via water vapor imagery, is forecast to evolve into an open wave (negatively tilted) and move across the southern/central Plains starting late Monday morning/early afternoon. The aforementioned deep moisture profile is expected to advect northward this evening and into Monday morning as lee cyclogenesis along the Rockies strengthens ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. This strong mass response will bring surface moisture, characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints, into Kansas; and low 70s dewpoints north of the Red River by Monday afternoon. A dryline will mix eastward just east the OK/TX border by the early afternoon. The environment ahead of this dryline will be characterized by strongly unstable and highly sheared environment. As the mid-level wave moves eastward throughout the day, storms are expected to initiate off the dryline during the early to mid afternoon. While coverage of storms still is uncertain, any storm that does form will be capable of producing very large hail and significant, long-tracked tornadoes. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Monday Night: Significant severe weather is expected to continue through evening hours as a nocturnal low-level jet increases after sunset. This LLJ will increase low-level shear, which will increase the tornado potential will any storm that is ongoing. Storms are expected to move out of the area by late Monday night (after midnight). A few storms may produce localized flash flooding, especially across areas that have received multiple inches of rain over the last several days. Tuesday: Could see a lull in activity Tuesday as the main wave lifts northward. Wednesday: A cold front will move in Wednesday morning and will make it to southeastern Oklahoma by the mid afternoon. Dewpoints ahead of the cold front are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. Thunderstorms are expected along this boundary in the afternoon and evening timeframe. Given the shear and instability, a few severe storms are possible as well across the southeastern portions of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. Through the rest of the week and into the weekend, it seems as though for now we will see a lull in thunderstorm activity. Bunker && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Mostly rain with a few embedded storms possible will be affecting our terminals across all of central through southeast Oklahoma through 17Z which could reduce those terminals to IFR for short periods. Although our terminals across western Oklahoma and western north Texas are dry, very low stratus may reduce those terminals to IFR conditions as well through 18Z. After 18Z, expecting stratus to lift a bit improving terminals to MVFR conditions and could see a few hours of VFR conditions by 21Z before returning back to MVFR conditions after 01Z. As far as surface winds, high surface pressure across the Central Plains settling into the Midwest Region will be veering winds northeasterly up to 10 kts then veering more southerly after 06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 60 80 54 82 / 0 50 30 0 Hobart OK 61 86 52 84 / 10 40 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 64 85 57 83 / 0 20 10 0 Gage OK 58 87 48 85 / 10 30 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 80 51 80 / 10 70 60 0 Durant OK 63 82 68 86 / 0 40 40 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...09