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000
FXUS63 KPAH 221251
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
751 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will moderate closer to normal values today as
  southerly surface flow increases. Elevated fire weather
  conditions are possible over the Ozark Foothills this
  afternoon.

- A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers and isolated
  thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night. Rainfall totals
  will be light, around 0.10 to 0.25" in most areas.

- A warm, breezy, and unsettled period of weather will begin
  Friday, with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms
  forecast through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Temperatures have quickly warmed into the upper 30s to lower
40s, so the risk of frost has ended. The Frost Advisory will be
allowed to expire as scheduled at 13z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Early This Morning...Ongoing Frost Advisory looks to be in good
shape. Several locations have already fallen into the middle to
upper 30s. With surface high pressure overhead, calm winds and
clear skies will allow radiational cooling to be maximized
through daybreak, so nearly the entire CWA should see
temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s for morning
lows.

Rest of today...Surface high pressure will gradually translate
east of the region, allowing warmer southerly return flow to
increase during the daytime hours. This will allow temperatures
to moderate closer to normal values for daytime highs. Most
areas will see high temperatures reach the middle to upper 60s.
Moisture return will be slower, so RH values will dip into the
20-30% range. While winds will be fairly light from the south
(mainly 8-12 kts), planning to add to the HWO an elevated fire
danger in the Ozark Foothills, where RH values will be the
lowest and where ongoing drought conditions are most intense.

Tuesday through Thursday...The midweek will be a transition
period between our previous cooler NW flow H5 regime and a more
active and warmer SW flow pattern. Mid- and upper-level will be
mainly zonal during this period. Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday, a weak surface cold front will push through the
region in association with a surface low moving NE through the
Great Lakes region. Chc to likely PoPs will ramp up Tuesday
afternoon and evening as the front passes. The better forcing
and moisture convergence will be well north of the forecast
area, so mainly light to moderate rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected. The front will clear the region by
Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.10 to
0.25" in most areas, with the relative higher totals closer to
Interstate 64. H5 heights will rise over the region, bringing a
return of dry weather for Wednesday through late Thursday.

High temperatures Tuesday will be near to slightly above normal,
in the lower to middle 70s. Following the frontal passage,
temperatures will be slightly cooler, reaching the upper 60s to
lower/middle 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures will
generally range from the lower/middle 40s to the lower 50s.

Friday through Sunday...A warm, breezy, and unsettled period of
weather looks to arrive for the end of the work week through the
upcoming weekend. In the mid- and upper-levels, a trough will
dig into the Intermountain West, with several shortwave troughs
ejecting into the central and southern Great Plains. These waves
will initiate surface cyclogenesis, with a series of surface
lows moving northeast from the central/southern Great Plains
into the Midwest/Great Lakes.

Model timing is poor with these features, so unsurprisingly,
the NBM initialization has chc to likely PoPs each day Friday
through Sunday (and beyond). The challenge will be trying to
pick out times where there is relatively better agreement with
regards to stormy and dry periods. At this time, two periods
where confidence in showers and storms is highest are Friday
afternoon and night and again Sunday afternoon and night.
However, with the region under a broad warm sector, isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms will be possibly during
pretty much any period during this time.

Given the differences in timing and paths of the surface lows
and resulting destabilization and shear parameters, it is
difficult to estimate what, if any, severe convection potential
there will be. However, the overall pattern is broadly
favorable for some kind of organized convection at time point
during this period.

Temperatures look to be 5-15 degrees above normal during this
period, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower
and middle 80s each day. Dew point temperatures will reach into
the upper 50s to lower 60s as well. Overnight lows will be quite
warm, only dipping into the lower to middle 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The TAFs are VFR. Calm winds through 15z will pick up from the
S-SW at 6-10 kts, with gusts up to 15-20 kts possible this
afternoon at CGI and MVN. Winds will relax back 4-6 kts tonight
from the S. Skies will be mostly clear, with some high cirrus
clouds possible very late in the period at CGI and MVN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS