433
FXUS65 KPIH 102009
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
209 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Minimal impacts are
expected through the short term. Satellite imagery shows deep low
pressure system centered over southern Nevada early this
afternoon, with strong ridge folding over through the PacNW
states into East Idaho. A few HREF members continue to support
isolated thunderstorm development across the southeast corner of
the region this afternoon, in response to moisture wrapping around
the Nevada low. Northerly surface gradient remains in place over
the region. Forecast lows tonight look to remain above Frost
headline thresholds, so there is some hope that we have seen the
last of the cold temperature headlines for this growing season.
Temperatures continue to surge into the weekend as ridge axis
folds overhead, with most lower elevations surging well into the
70s for daytime highs. DMH

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday. We will start out next week with
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.  The best chance
will remain farther east each day as a trough develops and deepens
along the Divide. Temperatures remain the warm side Sunday and
Monday. There is a 15-30% chance of topping 80 degrees Sunday across
the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, and just slightly lower Monday.
This is where the potential pattern ends up being the "Tale of Two
Cities". We either are on the edge or under the center of a very
strong ridge, or stronger northwest flow. The ridge pattern has been
consistently showing up in the GFS and 45%-ish of the clusters. The
ECMWF and the rest of the clusters favor the other pattern setup.
Our Blend of Models may be favoring the ECMWF a bit more, with
continued slight chance of showers/storms across the north and along
the Divide. It also favors a slower warm up similar to the ECMWF
pattern. Stay tuned. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...Even with some showers/storms possible through this
evening and again tomorrow afternoon, look for overall VFR
conditions at all of our TAF sites. Keyes


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A ridge of high pressure will bring drier and warmer
conditions to East Idaho for the weekend. High flows on area water
ways are expected to continue, especially as warmer temperatures
increase snow melt at upper reaches of the ranges. The Portneuf
and Blackfoot rivers remain the water ways of concern, though
there is some hope that conditions may slowly be improving. Have
maintained the Flood Warnings for the Blackfoot as levels remain
at or above Flood Stage. The Flood Warning remains intact for the
Portneuf at Pocatello. Have rescinded the Flood Warning for the
upper reaches of the Portneuf and issued a Flood Advisory instead.
Current and forecast levels appear to remain just below Flood
Stage, but the river remains elevated. With the pleasant weekend
in store and the continued high levels, opted to maintain at least
some kind of safety message, and wait to see how the temperatures
impact the river going through the weekend. DMH



&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$