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000
FXUS62 KRAH 241720
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
119 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drift southeast into central NC today, then shift
to our south tonight. High pressure will build in from the north
Thursday through Friday night, before shifting offshore over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 919 AM EDT Wednesday...

Sfc analysis this morning depicted a pre-frontal trough draped
across the NC/VA foothills. This feature has been generating mostly
elevated stratiform rain, little of which has reached the sfc along
the NC/VA border.  A narrow band of clouds and elevated stratiform
rain will continue to slide sse through the day.  Most of this
should evaporate aloft, but some reports of trace to maybe a few
hundreds seem plausible today.  Have lowered high temps a bit to
account for some evaporative cooling potential (low 70s
central/north areas,  mid to upper 70s across the south).

The synoptic cold front currently draped west of the Appalachian
Mountains will traverse central NC later tonight. This front will be
dry.  Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 228 AM Wednesday...

Mainly sunny and about 5 degrees cooler Thursday.

1030 mb high pressure will be over PA/NY at 12z Thursday with a cold
front offshore of the Carolina coast. The high pressure will
gradually shift east and off the New England and mid-Atlantic coast
by 00z/Friday. The low level flow from the NE will gradually turn to
the E-SE late Thursday and Thursday night. This flow will be a bit
more moist, especially in the Piedmont west into the Blue Ridge.
Expect increasing cloudiness, especially in the Piedmont late
Thursday and Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be in the 65-70
range north and northeast ranging into the mid 70s over the
Sandhills and Southern Piedmont. Lows Thursday night are favored to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday...

A mid/upr-level anticyclone will build across and offshore the South
Atlantic states through Monday. A weak shortwave trough will then
briefly weaken the ridge as it migrates across the ern US Tue-Wed.

At the surface, cP high pressure over ON this morning will build
sewd and across New England by 12Z Fri, then swd along and just
offshore the Middle and South Atlantic coasts through early next
week. As the high drifts swd and steadily modifies, it will direct
across cntl NC seasonably cool/mild ely flow Fri-Sat and much warmer
sswly flow Sun-Tue. A pre-frontal/lee trough and following cold
front will accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough over the
ern US late Tue-Wed. Associated probability of showers/storms should
be diurnally-maximized with the pre-frontal/lee trough, which will
likely move across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont and Coastal
Plain Tue afternoon and evening, with dry conditions in cntl NC
until that time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 119 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will continue through the 24 hour TAF period. A band
of light and mostly elevated stratiform rain will continue to
progress ese through central NC through early this evening. A brief
period of sprinkles/light rain can be expected at KRDU/KRWI and
maybe KRWI over this period. Otherwise, an accompanying cloud deck
of 6 to 9 kft ceilings will push through, behind which clearing is
expected through the overnight period.  Swly sfc winds ahead of this
pre-frontal boundary will remain light and swly. Behind the feature,
flow will turn wnwly but remain light overnight. Winds will then
turn more nely Thursday, with perhaps a little gustiness possible
early Thursday at KRWI/KRDU/KFAY.  Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected from this evening through the end of the 24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the
extended period as high pressure anchors offshore.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Luchetti