Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Reno, NV
000
FXUS65 KREV 150909
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
209 AM PDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The ongoing strong winds in the Sierra, choppy lake conditions,
and turbulent flights will gradually subside today. Otherwise,
breezy conditions will persist across lower elevations today. Dry
and warmer weather is expected over the weekend through early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
We`re almost out of the woods with this northeast wind event! So
far the strongest winds we`ve seen have been above 8000 ft along
the Sierra crest with gusts exceeding 120+ mph. Gusts peaked
yesterday morning and have tapered off slightly since then to
around 80-90 mph. We may see another peak in ridge winds this
morning to around 100 mph, but by this afternoon they`ll drop to
a much less impressive 50-60 mph then turn into a light breeze
overnight into Saturday.
The overall pattern through this weekend will consist of a Rex
Block, with high pressure squeezing its way in from the north over
the Pacific NW and a cut-off low to our south over SoCal/AZ. So
what does that mean for our weekend weather? Sunshine! The high
pressure will win out and plant itself over the western US this
weekend, giving our area nothing but sunshine and light winds.
However, if you`re in southern Mono County you may be a little
disappointed as we head into the weekend. That cut-off low will
be anchored over SoCal but will have precip bands wrapping around
the north side streaming in from the east, right over the southern
tip of Mono County and possibly Mineral County as well. Caused by
orographic uplift and having that consistent northeast upslope
flow, the snow showers will be kept to the eastern side of the
Sierra and White Mountains with periods of low clouds. Between
blended guidance and hi-res CAMs, there`s currently a 15-30%
chance of showers just for this morning and this evening. Amounts
look to remain very light with only about a 10% chance of seeing
up to an inch.
Looking ahead into next week, GFS/EC ensembles are still in firm
agreement that we`ll see low-end chances of precip starting as
early as Wednesday the 20th with higher chances next weekend.
-Justin
&&
.AVIATION...
* East winds 35-45 kts at FL100 will gradually ease this afternoon
and evening as gradients weaken. Light to moderate turbulence
will be mostly prevalent along and west of the Sierra this
morning. On the ground, northeast winds 10-15 kts with gusts
20-25 kts will be common for area terminals with some LLWS this
morning for Tahoe area sites.
* East flow wrapping around the upper low over the Desert
Southwest will allow for some moisture to reach areas south of
Hwy 50 through Saturday. Main impacts will be some terrain
obscuration in BKN030-050 along the eastern Sierra and White Mts
and upslope flow/moisture may be sufficient to produce a few
snow showers (15-30% chance) from KBAN-KMMH. Amounts will be
light and generally trace amounts. However, MVFR conditions may
occur at times.
* Gradual warming and drying by Sun-Mon as high pressure builds.
Expect light winds and decent flying weather the first half of
next week.
Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ072.
&&
$$