Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 181923
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1223 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and mostly dry conditions through Thursday, before winter-like
weather returns Friday and into the weekend. Afternoon breezes will
increase mid-week, with stronger winds Friday-Saturday. Periods of
mountain snow and valley rain can be expected Friday evening
through Sunday. Additional storms are possible into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* While March of 2024 hasn`t been nearly as cold as March 2023, we
  have been generally running below normal up until this past
  weekend. In fact, our average high temp as of 3/17 is nearly
  identical to what was experienced in February 2024, where in terms
  of averages, March is typically 7 degrees warmer than February. Of
  course, this month isn`t over yet, which is definitely skewing the
  data. Our first 70 degree day of the year for KRNO is forecast for
  Tuesday, while average first 70+ degree day is March 11 since
  1990. Our recommendation: enjoy this warmth while you can! Changes
  are on the way this weekend.

* It`ll mainly be dry, with very low (5-10%) chances for
  thunderstorms along and west of the Sierra crest Tuesday and
  Wednesday afternoons, per HREF and DESI.

* As is typical around here, spring season is a roller coaster,
  and our "spring of deception" will come to an end Friday into
  the weekend. Afternoon breezes to increase Wednesday onward,
  with winds peaking Friday into Saturday as a cold front pushes
  through the region. At this point, ensemble guidance points
  toward this not being a major wind event for valley locations,
  with most gusts in the 30-40 mph range, but strong winds are
  showing up for Sierra ridgelines, where gusts of 80+ mph will
  be possible. This could affect backcountry and ski recreation.

* Snow (yup that word is back) will push into the northern Sierra
  and Tahoe Basin Friday evening, peaking in intensity late Friday
  night into early Saturday morning with the cold front. This front
  will drop snow levels down to around 5000-5500 feet by daybreak
  Saturday. Snow will spread south along the Sierra Saturday into
  Sunday as the upper trough settles over the area. Periods of light
  rain will spillover into western NV, though per blended guidance,
  odds to even reach 0.25" are  generally under 20%. Over the
  weekend, instability under the low will bring a 15% chance for
  thunderstorms, along with pellet showers, to all areas.

* Keep in mind -- the rain and snow will come in waves and will
  not be continuous through the weekend. That being said, periods
  of travel difficulties in the Sierra are almost a guarantee.
  Anticipated liquid totals may be just enough to push many of the
  Eastern Sierra Basins to "normal" SWE for the typical winter
  peak of April 1.

* The overall pattern remains active into the end of March, but
  ensemble clusters are a bit more split on the timing and phases
  for the various waves. At this point, no major storms are on the
  horizon, but it also doesn`t look quiet. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

* Superb flying conditions the next several days with widespread VFR
  conditions and light winds surface and aloft. A few afternoon
  cumulus buildups Tuesday and Wednesday along and west of the
  Sierra crest, but very low (5-10%) chances for thunderstorms.

* Afternoon SW breezes return Wednesday, with stronger winds and
  periods of mountain snow and valley rain as we head into the
  weekend. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$


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