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000
FXUS61 KRLX 131856
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
256 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Ohio River remains in flood until Monday, when the crest
rolls down the middle Ohio Valley. A cold front slips into the
area Sunday night then stalls, before retreating on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

High pressure in control across the area, with dry air in place.
This has allowed for a quick warm up in temperatures across the area
today. Tonight, expect rather mild conditions, with slightly warmer
temperatures on ridge tops where higher winds will exist, but winds
should increase area wide towards morning. On Sunday, there could be
a brief shower or just some sprinkles early in the day as a warm
front pushes east, along with increasing gusty winds as the day
progresses and pressure gradient tightens across the area.
Otherwise, later Sunday, a weak cold front will push south towards
the CWA late in the period, ending up in northern SE Ohio zones
towards the end or after the end of the near term period. Showers
and storms are possible as it does so, but overall, looks to be
rather isolated in nature for the near term period. There is a
marginal risk for severe across northern zones, and greatest threat
area looks to be mostly confined to SE Ohio zones where better
instability/more favorable timing will exist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

A cold front, still well north of the area Sunday evening,
settles into the area overnight Sunday night and Monday, before
stalling out Monday night, somewhere near or along the Tug Fork,
as it starts to take on a more northwest to southeast
orientation. Even after sunset, elevated CAPE can support strong
thunderstorms in a narrow band of moisture ahead of the front
Sunday night. PW values in the 1 to 1.25 inch range in this band
can support brief heavy downpours as well.

The inactive portion of the front between systems will keep the
chance for precipitation low but not nil Monday and Monday
night, with a small chance of showers and thunderstorms along
and south of the front over southern West Virginia, northeast
Kentucky, and southwest Virginia.

Central guidance evinces above normal temperatures, with lowland
highs near 80 on Monday, and Monday night only slightly cooler
than Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

A stalled front returns northward as a warm front on Tuesday,
providing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This is not
an exceptionally moist warm front for spring, with PW values of
around an inch actually supported by saturation near and above
h7. Very narrow elevated CAPE and modest shear can support
showers and even thunderstorms, but precipitation will be
light, and even any thunderstorm should not be particularly
strong no heavy.

Tuesday night will find the area in the warm sector of a low
pressure system crossing the midwest. While an initial band of
showers and thunderstorms may arrive toward dawn, showers and
thunderstorms are more likely Wednesday afternoon and evening,
as the low crosses the Great Lakes and drags its cold front into
the area. Better moisture and instability is depicted ahead of
the cold front Wednesday afternoon, with PW values of around
1.25 inches and 500-1000 J/kg CAPE. With favored late day or
evening timing, strong heavy thunderstorms are a possibility
Wednesday.

The weather should dry out Wednesday night on loss of heating
and the passage of the cold front, but timing of precipitation
the balance of the week will depend upon the timing of another
cold front, and possible wave. The front will initially have
little moisture to work with as it comes on the heels of its
predecessor, but if a wave forms along it, it may be able to
garner more moisture. The frontal timing appears vary from late
Thursday through Friday with the wave then riding right up
along it, but the wave could then carry the chance for rain
into the start of next weekend.

The warm front takes temperatures well above normal Tuesday
through Wednesday, with lowland highs either side of 80, before
the successive cold fronts take temperatures back toward normal
during the latter portion of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions during the period. Gusty westerly winds will become
light after 23Z, but increase and become gusty again after 13Z
Sunday with gusts in the 20 kt range across lowlands, and in the 30
kt range across the higher terrain. In addition, LLWS will develop
overnight tonight, generally in the 02-12Z time frame, mainly across
the northeast mountains, affecting site KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms late Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL