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000
FXUS61 KRNK 141830
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
230 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will track across the Great Lakes tonight
through Thursday, pushing a front into the Mid Atlantic states,
along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
be above normal this week, until a stronger low pressure system and
cold front cross the region on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

 -  Enhanced Fire Danger this afternoon and evening

Will start to see high clouds from thunderstorms in Pennsylvania and
Maryland spread into central and southern Virginia overnight. Front
will move south tonight and Monday, reaching southwest Virginia and
southern West Virginia Monday afternoon. Some guidance was
suggesting axis of storms from Charleston, WV to Delaware Monday
afternoon and up to 2500 J/kg of CAPE Monday afternoon, mainly
after 4PM. Grand Ensemble also showed the highest probability of
precipitation in the late afternoon.

As mean flow has turned to the west and southwest region stays
in warm air advection. Wind speeds will be less gusty after
sunset and will remain mixed enough to keep overnight
temperatures mild. Highs on Monday will depend on the amount of
cloud cover in the morning but breaks of sunshine will be able
to tap into the warmer 850 MB temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

  - Several periods of showers and thunderstorms
  - Above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday

Cold front advancing south stalls along the VA/NC border Monday
night before retreating back north late Tuesday. More widespread
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be along the front,
but scattered to isolated storms will develop in the warm sector
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Seeing a push of stable air and cloud cover with northeast wind on
the cold side of the boundary in central and eastern Virginia on
Tuesday. This may result in a better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains on Tuesday, and cooler
temperatures in the piedmont depending on eventual location of
the front and cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Sunday...

As of Key Points:

1. Active weather pattern with at least showers in forecast for
portions of the area each day.
2. Thursday into Thursday night will be the least active time period.
3. Best coverage will be in the west.
4. Above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday become below normal
by Sunday.


A look at the 14 April 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows the following scenario Thursday through Sunday. A
shortwave trough which was over the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday
evening, is expected to have lifted north and been absorbed within
the approach of an even stronger trough. This second, stronger
trough, is expected to head east into Quebec Friday evening with its
associated axis over our region. By Saturday, flow across our region
trends zonal with perhaps another upstream shortwave trough over
the Upper Mississippi Valley. This shortwave trough then becomes a
bit more amplified as is crosses the region on Sunday. At the
surface, low pressure will move from central Ontario Thursday
evening to central Quebec by Friday evening. Its associated surface
cold front will cross our region on Thursday. A second cold front in
association with second and more potent trough is expected to cross
late Friday into Friday evening. A final frontal boundary is
expected to cross the area in association with the Sunday crossing
shortwave trough.

Output from the 14 Apr 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures at a maximum on Thursday in the +12C to
+14C range on Thursday. The upper end of this range touches the 90
to 97.5 percentile of the thirty-year climatology. As we progress
into the weekend, temperatures trend downward, especially by Friday
night. Saturday into Sunday values are expected to range from
roughly 0C to +5C. Precipitable Water values across the area will be
at a maximum on Thursday in the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range on Thursday
and Friday. The numbers drop to 0.50 to 0.75 inch on Saturday to
around 0.50 inch on Sunday.

The above weather scenario points towards one that is not a washout
for the area. However, with frequent passages a weak and stronger
cold fronts, a mention of showers and/or thunderstorms in the
forecast through this portion of the forecast will be common.
Currently, the time period with the least expected coverage is
Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to be five
to ten degrees above normal Thursday and Friday, near normal
Saturday, then about five degrees below normal for Sunday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate in the sense
that it should be confidence in the above extended aviation
scenario is good.a fairly active weather pattern with multiple
systems. Where confidence is on the lower side is the timing and
impacts of each of these systems.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period.

Will start to see high clouds from thunderstorms in New York and
Pennsylvania spread into central and southern Virginia
overnight. A cold front will move south tonight and Monday,
reaching southwest Virginia and southern West Virginia Monday
afternoon. Some guidance was suggesting axis of storms from
Charleston, WV to Delaware Monday afternoon and up to 2500 J/kg
of CAPE Monday afternoon, mainly after 4PM. Grand Ensemble also
showed the highest probability of precipitation in the late
afternoon, after the 18Z end of the TAF forecast period.

As mean flow has turned to the west and southwest region stays
in warm air advection. Wind speeds will be less gusty after
sunset but will remain mixed enough to keep overnight
temperatures mild.

Average confidence in ceiling, visibility and wind.


OUTLOOK...

Monday night, a weak cold front may bring a return of some
showers and potential thunderstorms, resulting in scattered
sub- VFR conditions.

Mainly VFR through Tuesday, though cloud cover is expected to
increase. Seeing a push of stable air and cloud cover with
northeast wind on the cold side of the boundary in central and
eastern Virginia on Tuesday. This may result in a better
coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and MVFR
ceilings in the piedmont.

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of
this system Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS/VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/BMG