095
FXUS65 KSLC 172047
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
247 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An active, unsettled pattern will continue through at
least the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...Another summer-like day here
across the Beehive State as we head into the weekend. A mainly dry
cold front has progressed through most of northern Utah, with
gusty northwesterly winds in its wake. Near the front, isolated,
high-based showers have formed. Given the deep, dry sub-cloud
environment, cant rule out out a few microbursts this afternoon
and evening...mainly south of Provo.

As the initial shortwave trough shifts east into the Plains, the
next shortwave trough will dig southeastward into the Pacific
Northwest. In response, the remnant cold front will begin to lift
north as a weak quasi-warm front. This boundary will support
isolated to widely scattered high-based convection across portions
of northern and central Utah Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. A significant portion of the guidance envelope continues
to support high-based convection moving into northern Utah
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main impact will be the
continued potential for dry microbursts, especially during the
daylight hours.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...As we pivot to more unsettled
weather this weekend, the main hazards for the long-term period
include below-normal temperatures and isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially for northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming.

A longwave trough will push southward from the Interior Northwest
and into northern Utah by Sunday. An overall lack of moisture and
dynamics on Sunday will produce only isolated
showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain during the afternoon and
evening across northern areas. By Monday, a surface cold front
will be making its way across Utah, with a slight increase in
moisture and more showers/thunderstorms likely along that
baroclinic zone, especially during the afternoon. Far southern
Utah could see some breezy southwesterly winds Monday afternoon
ahead of that frontal passage. While the main cold front will have
moved eastward by Tuesday, lingering instability will likely also
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon,
particularly over higher terrain and northern areas once again.

As for temperatures, highs on Monday are likely to be 10-15
degrees cooler than Sunday across many areas, with far southern
Utah highs only decreasing by around 5-10 degrees. The main
uncertainty here is with the track of the trough, with a more
southern track (50% of ensemble members) likely producing cooler
temperatures further south. A shallower trough (26% of members)
would likely limit the degree of cooling over southern Utah.

After a shortwave ridge on Wednesday with a warming trend,
another trough is possible later in the work week. Currently, 54%
of ensemble members favor a stronger trough which could produce
even cooler, unsettled weather. The remaining 46% of members favor
a far weaker trough and less active weather.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwest winds are forecast through this
evening before shifting out of the southeast overnight. A light
northwest wind can be expected once again early tomorrow
afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail.

.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions are forecast
throughout the period across the region. Isolated rain showers
are forecast for tomorrow afternoon, mainly across any central
Utah terminals. Areas of gusty winds are noted this afternoon
which will decrease during the evening and are forecast to be
light overnight. There is, however, a chance for stronger winds
after midnight at southern Utah terminals as indicated by the RAP
and HRRR model solutions. Gusts around 30 knots are possible if
these solutions come to fruition.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high based convection continues to
develop near and ahead of a cold front this afternoon...roughly
near a line from Ibapah to Uinta County WY. Gusty winds are
occurring behind this front, highest across areas of northern Utah
closest to the Wyoming border. This front will gradually weaken
through this evening as the best support lifts away from the
area...and then gradually lift north as a pseudo-warm front
through Sunday. Chances of high-based convection will increase
with this front and continue into Sunday. Additional troughs will
bring unsettled conditions into the next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Cunningham/NDeSmet

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