584
FXUS62 KTAE 111946
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
346 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Ridging slides eastward from the Central US through the weekend with
a dry post-frontal airmass in place. This pattern supports continued
fair weather with seasonal temperatures for Mother`s Day. Folks
should be waking up to lows in the mid/upper 50s away from the coast
tomorrow morning, followed by widespread 80s in the afternoon. The
latter will feel relatively comfortable given forecast sub-60s
dew points. Upper clouds build from the west tonight ahead of the
next weather system brewing over the Southern Plains. Stray light
showers cannot be ruled out towards the end of the period across
parts of the FL Panhandle/SE AL, but chances are low (10% or
less).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Transition pattern will in place through the short term period
beginning Sunday night as the area will be under a mid-level ridge
ahead of our next weather system. This system will begin to
approach the region Monday afternoon and evening as the mid-level
ridge overhead moves east. At the surface, high pressure will be
moving east out of the forecast area with moist southerly flow
resuming Monday evening into Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 80s across the Big Bend with temperatures in the low to
mid 80s across Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle as increasing clouds and rain chances begin to move in
late Monday afternoon and into the evening.

Much of the severe weather should hold off until the Tuesday when
the main upper level trough moves in, but we`ll need to watch our
western counties in the Panhandle early Tuesday morning as the
system gets closer as there is a non-zero threat for an isolated
strong storm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A progressive and active pattern appears likely through much of
the week and unfortunately it could bring more rounds of severe
weather. The first round is possible on Tuesday as a strong
shortwave trough moves across the Ohio River Valley. Although
subtle forcing in the elevated southwesterly flow aloft will keep
off-and-on showers through Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the
potential for an uptick in severe weather potential as stronger
shear, and potentially greater instability, overspread the region
during the rest of the day. Given the large uncertainty in
instability, and how overnight convection from Monday and early
Tuesday could affect conditions, it`s too early to pin down any
specific severe threat. Additionally the rounds of showers and
higher preciptable waters could lead to a localized threat for
flash flooding across portions of the area.

Lingering showers are forecast on Wednesday as the main trough
pushes through and rain chances, along with an isolated severe
threat on Wednesday, will clear out by the afternoon.

A brief transition period is expected on Thursday before the next
upper level system, and potential round of severe weather,
possibly moves in late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A dry post-frontal airmass will make for continued VFR conds thru
this TAF period. Light NW winds turn NE by late tmrw morning.
Thickening upper clouds spread from west to east beginning
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Weekend boating conditions will be met with fair weather in the
wake of a front before chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase early next week with the potential for impactful maritime
convection on Tuesday. Northerly winds turn more southerly ahead
of the upcoming storm system. Seas respond with waveheights in the
4 to 6 feet range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry weather continues through the weekend before a wetter pattern
arrives early next week. North post-frontal winds this afternoon
gradually veer to east then southeast by Monday. As such, expect a
moistening trend ahead of an upcoming storm system from the west.
Widespread wetting rains (heavy at times) with thunderstorms (some
may be strong to severe) are likely Monday-Tuesday. Overall, there
are no fire concerns over the next 3 days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024


In the extended period the WPC is forecasting 2-4 inches
throughout next week. This could introduce some riverine concerns,
however, it`s too far out to say with any degree of confidence.
Most of this precip is Monday into Tuesday, with additional
rainfall possible later in the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   59  84  66  85 /   0  10   0  60
Panama City   63  82  68  82 /   0  10  10  70
Dothan        58  82  64  82 /   0  10  10  80
Albany        57  84  64  80 /   0   0  10  70
Valdosta      58  86  65  85 /   0   0   0  60
Cross City    59  86  65  89 /   0  10   0  50
Apalachicola  65  81  71  81 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs