Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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872 FXUS62 KTBW 260841 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 441 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)... Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Clear skies and temperatures in the 60s across the Sunshine State. A persistent upper level ridge slides and builds along the US East Coast. This will keep dry airmass and rain free conditions through the forecast period. Easterly winds gradually become breezy today and over the weekend, but attempt to shift onshore in areas along the coast this afternoon. Highs climb up to near 90 but dewpoints remain in the 60s, which would make conditions feel a more comfortable. Increasing clouds should keep slightly cooler conditions over the interior, but temperatures get toasty along the coast on Saturday. && .LONG TERM (SUN-THU)... Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 By early next week, model guidance brings an disturbance to move north of the area resulting in gusty winds as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds should decrease through the first half of the week and the sea breeze returns at least to coastal areas. Afternoon highs warm up into the low 90s areawide while overnight lows stay in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions across terminals through the period as dry air stays in place. Easterly winds gradually increase during the day and the sea breeze will struggle to make it inland. The current forecast only brings it only to PIE and SRQ. Winds should decrease a bit later in the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 High pressure ridge prevails across the Gulf waters through the period. Easterly winds shifting onshore each afternoon remaining below 15 knots with seas of around 2 feet or less through the end of the week. Then, the interaction between the ridge and a disturbance moving north of the area could bring cautionary level winds to the waters for the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 High pressure continues to dominate across fire districts through the next several days. Minimum humidities are expected to be at or just below critical values each afternoon. Easterly winds increase through the day and should shift onshore at the immediate coast. As a result, high dispersions are anticipated in some areas during the weekend. Winds should remain below Red Flag criteria during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 68 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 89 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 89 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 89 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 87 71 85 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Hurt