Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
319 FXXX10 KWNP 280031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 30 00-03UT 3.67 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.33 2.00 2.67 06-09UT 3.33 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.33 1.67 15-18UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 18-21UT 2.00 2.33 2.67 21-00UT 2.00 2.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 30 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 27 2024 1235 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 30 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected over the next three days.