Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
672
FXXX10 KWNP 040031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2024
May 04 May 05 May 06
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 4.67 (G1)
03-06UT 3.00 3.33 5.67 (G2)
06-09UT 2.67 2.67 5.67 (G2)
09-12UT 2.67 2.33 4.67 (G1)
12-15UT 1.67 2.00 3.67
15-18UT 2.67 3.00 3.67
18-21UT 3.67 4.00 2.67
21-00UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05 May followed
by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 06 May due to the arrival of a CME from 03
May.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2024
May 04 May 05 May 06
S1 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists,
primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3663, over the next three
days.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 03 2024 0222 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2024
May 04 May 05 May 06
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 25% 25% 25%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare
potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.