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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1055 AM EDT Thursday March 28 2024

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF April

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
Streamflows forecast for the month of April are generally normal through the
bulk of the Ohio River forecast basin...with some below normal possible for
areas of southern basin.  Reminder that climatologically April has some of the
highest streamflows for a lot of the basin, so "normal" flows can sometimes
mean some elevated streamflows.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
Flood potential is near normal for the month of April while drought is not
expected or minimal at this time.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
Precipitation over the past 30 days has been below normal in the western half
of the basin and near normal generally for the eastern half. Indiana, western
Kentucky, and eastern Illinois ran 50-90 percent of normal whilst Pennsylvania,
Ohio , and West Virginia was roughly normal. Scattered pockets of 125 percent
were observed in western PA.

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
Soil moisture is generally running below normal through the southwestern half
of the basin at 20 to 30th percentile.The rest of the basin is generally
running near normal as we head deeper into spring.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
Streamflows at the end of March are below normal in the western half of the
Ohio River forecast basin as well as the far eastern portions.  Central basin
is generally running very close to normal.

https://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
Neutral = Near Normal

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
Negative = Below Normal

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
Neutral = Near Normal

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
Weakening El Nino = Below to approaching normal precipitation

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
Teleconnections and antecdent conditions point to continued normal to slightly
below normal streamflow outlook for the month of April. El Nino has been the
principal driver in a normal to lower than normal precipitation picture through
the past couple of months, but that is expected to begin rapidly weakening.
Below normal looks more likely in the southern half of the basin where the
northern basin could be impacted with an early April system.  Again, reminder
climatologically April has some of the highest streamflows for a lot of the
basin, so "normal" flows can often mean some elevated streamflows.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$