570
FXUS64 KTSA 120809
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An upper low over the four corners region was apparent via water
vapor imagery this morning. This feature will gradually slide
eastward into the Great Plains today... bringing increasing shower
and thunderstorm activity across the CWA. With moisture advecting
into the area and strengthening isentropic ascent, clouds and
precip chances should generally increase from SW to NE through the
afternoon. Potential exists for perhaps some small hail with the
most intense elevated cores... though with generally poor
instability in place, storms are expected to remain sub- severe.

Afternoon highs will be cooler than yesterday given clouds &
increasing precip. Overall though, temps remain near average with
SE OK being the coolest in the mid 70s. Additionally, SSE winds
increase during the day, gusting 15-25 mph, in response to a
deepening sfc trough to our west. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Better shower/ storm chances continue across the region tonight
through Monday as the upper level system gradually moves overhead
with a sfc low and associated weak cold front pushing through the
area. Instability will be increasing early Monday morning into the
afternoon hours... particularly across SE OK & NW AR... and with
sufficiently steep lapse rates & shear values, marginally severe
hail or wind may be observed with the strongest storms. However,
the severe threat is still expected to remain on the marginal
side, especially for May standards. PWATs between 1.25 to 1.5" are
advertised during the Sunday- Monday time frame, suggesting that
locally heavy rainfall may become a concern, especially given how
wet things have been recently. While much of the area should be
clear of precip by Monday night, guidance holds on to some wrap
around moisture and thus low precip chances across NW AR through
Tuesday morning & afternoon. Any rainfall during this period
should remain fairly light, however. Overall, expecting total QPF
Sunday through Tuesday in the 0.5 to 1.5" range... with a low
potential for locally higher totals up to 2".

While there will be a break in precip Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, rain and storm chances return Wednesday night through
Friday as multiple impulses move through our area. Locally heavy
rainfall and a marginal severe threat may again evolve during this
time frame, but significant impacts are not expected as of now.
Ridging develops for the weekend with pleasant weather returning
to the CWA.

High temps will tend to hover near to slightly below seasonal
averages (upper 70s to lower 80s) through the extended period,
with a warm up expected by the weekend (mid-upper 80s). Low temps
remain in the 50s and 60s. While winds may be periodically breezy
as each weather system impacts the CWA, gusts should keep to the
15-25 mph range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The main aviation concern is potential for MVFR conditions during
the latter half of the period with increasing low clouds as well
as an uptick in shower coverage. A few showers are currently
ongoing across southeast Oklahoma that could occasionally bring
some sprinkles or light rain to MLC from the outset but the rain
that is more likely to bring category reductions should hold off
until the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. Instability should
be fairly limited until the evening hours so will hold off on any
TS mention anywhere until after 00Z and even that will only be in
PROB30 groups. Better thunderstorm potential looks to arrive after
06Z, with an expected continued increase in instability from the
south and west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  62  77  60 /  30  80  70  20
FSM   80  63  78  62 /  30  70  80  30
MLC   76  62  78  60 /  50  50  60  10
BVO   79  58  76  56 /  30  90  80  30
FYV   78  59  75  57 /  20  80  90  40
BYV   79  59  75  59 /  30  70  90  50
MKO   78  62  76  59 /  30  70  80  20
MIO   79  60  74  58 /  30  90  90  50
F10   76  62  76  59 /  40  70  60  20
HHW   73  62  79  60 /  70  50  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22