Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
728 FXUS65 KVEF 300833 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 133 AM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and afternoon breezes are on tap for the region today. A weather system will move through the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West on Wednesday, knocking temperatures down a few degrees and bringing gusty northwesterly winds to the area. By Thursday temperatures will have cooled to more seasonal values before warming back up as we head into the weekend. This warmup will be short lived as another system is forecast to impact the Western US late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Thursday. Temperatures across the region will be about 5 degrees warmer than normal for the last day of April. Skies across the area will be mostly sunny as we continue to find ourselves under dry westerly flow aloft. 20 to 25 mph afternoon breezes will return to the Mojave Desert again this afternoon as a weak disturbances passes through our forecast area. A shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin regions on Wednesday eroding at our higher 500 mb heights. As a result, we will see temperatures cool slightly from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon along with gusty north-to- northwesterly winds pick up across the region. These winds will primarily be in the 25 to 35 mph range with isolated gusts in excess of 40 mph likely in the higher terrain of central Nye, Esmeralda, and eastern Inyo counties. Temperatures will continue to cool a few degrees from Wednesday to Thursday, with seasonal temperatures in store for the region on Thursday as the aforementioned shortwave clears out of the Great Basin. Gusty northerly winds will linger down the Colorado River Valley on Thursday with the strongest of these winds occurring around the Laughlin/Bullhead City area south to Needles, CA. .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday. The forecast for Friday and the weekend remains low confidence with ensemble systems continuing to show high uncertainty regarding the evolution of a low pressure system and also the overall pattern behind the system. Based on the latest run for all 3 primary ensemble systems, the EC ENS favors a weaker system tracking across the Great Basin resulting mostly in gusty winds for our area while the GEFS favors a much stronger system which could potentially bring greater impacts to the southwestern states over the weekend. The way the forecast currently stands, there is generally good ensemble agreement that our area will see above normal temperatures to begin the weekend with the system still to our west or northwest. There will likely be gusty winds on Saturday, per the current pattern evolution, but no significant winds. Sunday is the wild card depending on how the pattern plays out but there is also decent ensemble agreement that the system, in whatever form it takes, will be progressive and either weaken or be east of us by Monday afternoon. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South to southwest winds less than 7 knots through 15z. Winds are forecast to then transition to a northeast direction around 16-18z with speeds around 7 knots or less. It is possible that winds will become southeast by late morning through mid-afternoon before southwest winds kick in after 23z. Occasional southwest gusts between 15-20 knots will be possible into the evening before diminishing. Mainly clear skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will generally remain under 10 knots through 21z with increasing southwest winds during the late afternoon hours with winds 10-20 knots. Other than a few high clouds AOA 20kft AGL near KBIH and the Sierra during the afternoon, mainly clear skies are expected areawide through the TAF period. && && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stessman LONG TERM...Salmen AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter