624
FXUS65 KVEF 140441 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
941 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Limited moisture and instability will lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sierra and
mountains of central Nevada through Tuesday followed by a slight
chance of showers over the southern Nevada mountains on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, a warm weather pattern will persist through the week with
highs 5 to 7 degrees above normal. A slight cooling trend with
increasing southwest winds develops late this weekend.
&&


.UPDATE...Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas reached 97
degrees today, making today the hottest day of 2024 so far.
Scattered radar returns noted across the southern Great Basin this
afternoon have diminished and scattered cumulus across the region
have cleared out. Expect Tuesday to look similar as today with
regard to scattered cumulus across the region and isolated pockets
of light rain across the southern Great Basin with high temperatures
in the mid-to-upper 90s for the desert valleys. No changes made to
the forecast this evening as it looks to be in good shape.
&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...230 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024/

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

Warm weather will continue over the region with little change in
high temperatures the next few days although a convergent synoptic
flow aloft will result in some cloud cover and isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sierra and mountains of
central Nevada. The features responsible for the converging flow are
a mean trough dropping over the northern Intermountain Region and a
large weak closed low near the southern California Coast. Limited
moisture and instability combined with the convergence will lead to
afternoon convection primarily over the mountains. Any rainfall will
be minimal and no significant impacts are expected aside from remote
occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds near showers. The area
of moisture and instability will be primarily concentrated over the
southern Sierra/central Nevada area through Tuesday then will push
over southern Nevada Wednesday leading to a 10% chance of showers
over the Spring Mountains and some increased cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday.

A growing ridge over the eastern Pacific will continue to grow over
the western United States late-week into the weekend. Temperatures
will remain 10 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages, with desert
valleys increasing to "Moderate" HeatRisk. Las Vegas has a 35%
chance of 100F both Friday and Saturday, which would be the first
occurrence of the year.

That said, uncertainty remains in the long term as ensemble means
indicate a weak closed low will meander eastward into southern
California / northern Baja, which would dampen heights somewhat. As
a result, the NBM4.1 totes a 10-degree temperature spread between
the 25th and the 75th percentile this weekend in Las Vegas.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South-southwest winds 10-15KT
will persist through the evening then become light and variable
overnight and Tuesday morning. Similar wind components and speeds
can be expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. FEW-SCT clouds with
bases 100-150 can be expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty afternoon south-southwest winds to 20 knots will
develop across the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley
through Tuesday followed by light winds after sunset. At KDAG, gusty
late afternoon and evening west winds 20-25 knots will occur. AT
KBIH, isolated showers may occur in the vicinity of airport each
afternoon as afternoon convection develops over the southern Sierra
and central Nevada mountains.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Varian
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Adair
LONG TERM...Varian

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