880
FXUS65 KABQ 091155 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Very dry and windy conditions give way to higher
moisture across eastern NM today and through the weekend. Showers
begin to spread over the northern mountains late today, spreading to
more of central and eastern NM Friday and Saturday. The backdoor
front responsible for this surges through the gaps of the central
mountain chain tonight and through Friday night with high winds
possible through the Tijeras Canyon into the ABQ metro area. Some of
this moisture will reach the Continental Divide Friday before being
pushed back toward TX by Sunday. Winter weather will also be
possible over the northern mountains during this time where several
inches of fresh and likely wet snow is possible. Conditions turn
warmer and drier most areas Sunday, but precipitation chances don`t
entirely go away across northern and central NM next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

A broad area of upper level low pressure will consolidate into a
565dm H5 low over southeast UT today. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold
front moving southwest across eastern NM will bring a period of
gusty northeast winds and increasing dewpoints today. Canyon winds
may develop in the RGV around sunrise today with a couple hours of
breezy to locally windy conditions from Santa Fe to ABQ. Stronger
west/southwest flow aloft in the base of the aforementioned upper
level trough will allow central and western NM to become breezy this
afternoon with humidity values near 10% again. Lift associated with
the upper level speed max will interact with a resurgence of moist,
low level return flow by late afternoon to develop a few showers
along the Sangre de Cristo Mts and northeast NM. Areas of low clouds
are also expected to develop across the northeast in the wake of
wind shift by late day. Much stronger canyon winds are expected in
the RGV with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible from near Santa Fe to
ABQ. Forecast confidence was not high enough to upgrade the High
Wind Watch given 80% of the HREF members have gusts peaking below 58
mph and MET/MAV guidance has been trending weaker the past few runs.
A moderate density/pressure gradient is still likely with deep layer
east-southeast flow across the Sandia Mts but the stability profile
in cross-sections is not most ideal for maximum downward momentum
flux. The day shift will have another opportunity to monitor trends
in guidance so the High Wind Watch has been continued.

Precip coverage is likely to expand across the northern mts tonight
with moist, low level southeast flow working with orographics and
large-scale ascent with the upper level speed max. Temps will be
cold enough to support snow above 9,000 ft. Folks with recreation
plans in the Sangre de Cristo Mts should plan for a few to several
inches of snow in the back country Friday and Friday night. Eastern
NM will be socked in with low clouds for much of the day with temps
up to 15F below normal. Additional areas of light rain and/or rain
showers with isolated thunder may develop along the east slopes of
the central mt chain by late Friday afternoon where instability is
just sufficient to initiate convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

The long term begins with the leading edge of a
backdoor front already having pushed to the Continental Divide and
underlying southwest flow aloft ahead of an 568dm H5 low over Las
Vegas, NV. There will be one more reinforcing surge of this backdoor
push Friday night into Saturday morning producing continued strong
east canyon winds through the gaps of the central mountain chain.
These east canyon winds won`t be as strong as they are forecast for
Friday morning however, gusting 35 to 40 mph. Continued showers and
convective activity along the leading edge of the backdoor front
looks to continued through Friday night as well, with lesser chances
further east toward TX given more stable conditions. This changes
Saturday afternoon however as richer Gulf moisture begins to advect
northward into eastern NM. Td`s rise into the low 50s across the
eastern plains while the moisture gradient becomes sharper getting
pushed back east to the central mountain chain. Overall forecast
confidence for afternoon thunderstorm activity across eastern NM has
come down with this forecast package given a lowering of surface
temperatures across the eastern plains with highs now in the 60s.
The NAM12 is by far the most stable across the eastern plains with a
forecast sounding at Clovis showing a stout mid-level capping
inversion, whereas the GFS is less capped. Brought down the chance
for thunderstorms across eastern NM as a result, but still left a
slight chance mention there given the uncertainty. While showers are
likely across the eastern half of the state, the more robust
convective thunderstorm potential will exist along the western edge
of the moisture gradient along the central mountain chain. The H5
low tracks east through the Four Corners area Saturday night with
southwesterly flow aloft overrunning moisture across eastern NM
generating continued showers and a few storms overnight. Drier
westerlies fill in behind the Pacific front shunting the Gulf
moisture back into TX by Sunday afternoon. Remnant showers will
persist over the northern mountains and northeastern plains on the
backside of the upper low.

Temperatures trend warmer heading into next week. Numerical model
solutions are also generating a round of afternoon showers Monday
from enough mid-level moisture left over the state. These showers
may end up being high based with little wetting footprints however.
Thereafter, ensemble guidance is favoring a more amplified upper
level pattern over the western CONUS with backdoor frontal
intrusions into eastern NM being favored by around 40% of the
solutions. Less likely solutions hold a less amplified pattern with
a cutoff low slowly crossing NM next week generating some light
precipitation. Either way, next week will have its fair chance at
more precipitation across NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

An active period is in store with a variety of weather impacts
likely across the airspace, including a few showers and storms,
strong winds, turbulence, mt snow, icing, and mt obscurations. A
backdoor cold front moving southwest over eastern NM this morning
will bring a brief period of gap winds to the RGV with gusts of 30
kt possible at KABQ. SHRA/TS will then develop after 2pm along
and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. This activity will move to
the northeast into nearby highlands and plains this evening. Areas
of MVFR low cigs will develop along and east of the central mt
chain overnight with local IFR in the area from Raton to Las
Vegas. Much stronger canyons winds are expected for Santa Fe and
Albuquerque with gusts between 40 and 50 kt possible after 9pm. An
Airport Weather Warning is likely at KABQ tonight. Snow will also
develop over the high terrain of the northern mts tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

A pattern shift toward cooler temps with higher precip chances will
begin today with deeper moisture returning to central and eastern
NM. Western NM will still see localized areas of marginally critical
fire weather thru Saturday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall chances are
increasing along and east of the central mt chain thru Sunday. Temps
will be cold enough to support a few inches of snow above 9,000 feet
tonight and Friday in the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Precip amounts of
0.25" to 0.75" are expected for a broad area of northeast NM with
localized amounts over 1" possible thru Sunday. Cool and unsettled
weather with afternoon showers may stick around for northern and
eastern NM thru Tuesday before warming temps with lower humidity
return areawide by the middle of next week. Vent rates will trend
poor to fair across eastern NM thru the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68  41  71  43 /   5  10  20  20
Dulce...........................  64  32  65  32 /  30  60  60  40
Cuba............................  65  37  65  39 /  10  30  30  20
Gallup..........................  67  30  70  33 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  64  33  68  37 /   0   0  10   5
Grants..........................  69  33  70  34 /   0   5   5  10
Quemado.........................  69  33  71  36 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  72  41  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  67  36  70  41 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  73  33  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  78  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  58  30  58  33 /  50  70  80  50
Los Alamos......................  65  41  60  44 /  30  40  40  30
Pecos...........................  62  38  57  41 /  30  50  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  54  36  53  41 /  60  80  60  50
Red River.......................  50  29  48  31 /  70  80  80  50
Angel Fire......................  51  28  48  30 /  50  80  60  50
Taos............................  62  36  60  34 /  50  70  40  40
Mora............................  57  34  51  37 /  30  60  40  40
Espanola........................  72  40  70  42 /  20  40  30  40
Santa Fe........................  65  42  60  44 /  20  40  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  69  43  64  44 /  10  30  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  74  47  71  50 /  10  10  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  75  47  73  49 /   5  10  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  47  75  49 /   0   5  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  75  47  73  49 /   5   5  10  20
Belen...........................  79  43  77  45 /   0   0  10  20
Bernalillo......................  76  46  74  49 /   5  10  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  78  44  76  45 /   0   5  10  20
Corrales........................  77  47  75  49 /   5  10  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  78  44  76  46 /   0   5  10  20
Placitas........................  72  45  67  48 /  10  20  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  76  46  73  49 /   5  10  20  20
Socorro.........................  82  47  81  49 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  66  41  60  44 /  10  20  30  30
Tijeras.........................  71  42  64  45 /  10  20  30  30
Edgewood........................  70  39  63  43 /  10  20  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  71  38  64  41 /  10  20  20  30
Clines Corners..................  64  37  58  40 /  10  20  20  30
Mountainair.....................  70  39  66  42 /   5  10  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  71  40  68  43 /   0   5  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  77  47  76  51 /   0   5   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  69  42  65  46 /   0   0  10  20
Capulin.........................  56  35  53  39 /  30  60  40  30
Raton...........................  59  36  56  39 /  40  70  40  30
Springer........................  62  38  57  41 /  30  70  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  61  37  54  41 /  30  50  30  40
Clayton.........................  64  43  62  44 /  10  30  10  20
Roy.............................  64  41  59  44 /  20  50  20  30
Conchas.........................  73  47  66  50 /  20  40  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  71  45  65  47 /  20  30   5  30
Tucumcari.......................  73  45  68  47 /  20  30   0  20
Clovis..........................  77  47  72  49 /  10  10   0  20
Portales........................  78  47  73  49 /   5  10   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  77  47  71  49 /  20  20   5  30
Roswell.........................  86  54  77  56 /   0   5   0  30
Picacho.........................  79  47  69  49 /   0   5   5  20
Elk.............................  79  43  70  46 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ201.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday morning for
NMZ219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42