Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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082
FXUS61 KALY 242052
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
452 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure slides eastward off the Atlantic coast, very
warm conditions are expected Friday into Saturday, with
increasing amounts of humidity. Some showers or thunderstorms
are possible over the holiday weekend, mainly for Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For tonight...Expect mainly clear skies are expected as high
pressure remains in control of our weather, Lows will be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

On Friday skies will continue to remain mainly clear. It will be
a warmer day than today along with slightly higher levels of
relative humidity. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aside from some passing clouds, Friday night should remain
rain-free as an upper level wave approaches the region.
Overnight lows will remain fairly mild as well, with
temperatures only dipping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

By Saturday, a frontal boundary to the north across southern
Canada will start dropping southward towards the area.
Additionally, the upper level disturbance over the Great Lakes will
move closer to the region. Ahead of these boundaries, it will
be another warm day, with highs into the 80s and dewpoints will
be starting to get muggy with readings into the 60s. The latest
GEFS indicates that this air mass is 1-2 standard deviations
warmer than normal, with climatology indicated a normal high of
72 degrees. With these two features, a few showers or even a
thunderstorm will be possible later in the day across the area,
but especially across the northern portion of the forecast
area closer to the frontal boundary.

Saturday night into Sunday, rain chances continue for the
entire area as the cold front continues to drop southward. This
front may get hung up for a bit on Sunday across the southern NY before
getting kicked to the east as a stronger upper level wave moves
across the Great Lakes. This will lead to continued unsettled
weather through the day Sunday. Highs Sunday afternooon will be
10-15 degrees cooler than Saturday, albeit near normal, in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The backdoor cold front responsible for the cool and cloudy weather
on Sunday looks to be positioned near NYC/southern New England by
00z Monday. For Sunday night, we will be watching a departing low
off the NJ/mid-Atlantic coast along with large scale high pressure
in the Midwest. With this high inching eastward overnight, our
backdoor cold front may start to gradually lift northeastward as a
warm front. The increasing warm air advection Sunday night keeps the
potential for showers in the forecast and thus kept the chance POPs
for areas in and especially west of the Capital District. Decreased
POPs to slight chance POPs in western New England where the effects
of the low level marine layer may be stronger.

As per usual, the low level cool wedge likely will be tough to scour
out despite the increasing warm air advection aloft. Therefore, low
temperatures should remain cool, falling into the 50s and
potentially even 40s in parts of western New England.

Warm air advection continues after 12z Monday and the cool wedge in
the lower half of the boundary layer should gradually start to erode
away from southwest to northeast. As parts of our region enter the
warm sector, high temperatures turn warmer than Sunday reaching into
the 70s. Dew points should remain a bit high in the upper 50s/near
60. Western New England may remain cool as the region could still be
feeling the effects of the high off the New England coast. As the
cool wedge erodes in the western half of the CWA allowing for breaks
of sun, instability looks to increase. Therefore, continued the
threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday, with the
highest POPs in the western half of the CWA.

An upper level trough in Canada then looks to drag a moisture
starved cold front across our region from NW to SE Monday night so
continued low end chance POPs for the northern half of the CWA and
slight chance for the southern half between 00z - 12z Tuesday. The
front looks to be southwest of our region by 18z Tuesday and in its
wake, Canadian high pressure takes control. This should lead to
clearing skies with highs reaching into the upper 70s/low 80s. Dew
points will fall through the day thanks to this air mass change
dropping into the low 50s.

Large scale riding moves into the Northeast for Wednesday giving us
a beautiful day. Expect abundant sunshine, highs in the upper 70s
and dew points comfortably in the upper 40s/low 50s. High pressure
shifts off the coast Thursday and we will be monitoring a
disturbance in the Southeast U.S. With increasing warm air advection
ahead of this system, we will have to monitor the potential for
showers and introduced chance POPs to reflect this threat.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will control the weather through the end of the
TAF period ending at 18Z Friday with few if any clouds
expected.

North to northwest winds of 4 to 10 kts are expected to become
west this afternoon and remain west overnight. Winds will be
west to southwest on Friday with wind speeds around 10 kts with
gusts over 20 kts at KPSF.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected over the next few days. RH values
should recover back to near 100 percent tonight, before lowering
to 35 to 45 percent during the day on Friday. West winds will
be 10 to 20 mph for Friday. The next chance of rain will be over
the holiday weekend, mainly Sunday into Monday, in the form of
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next few days.

Dry weather is expected to continue through tomorrow with high
pressure in control. As a result, rivers, streams, lakes, ponds,
reservoirs, brooks, creeks and kills will remain fairly steady
over the next few days.

Our next chance for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
will be over the holiday weekend. Northern areas will have the
best chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday, with
better chances across the remainder of the area for Sunday into
Monday. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable due to
thunderstorm activity and some locations may stay completely dry.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/JVM
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/JVM



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