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000
FXUS62 KCAE 231023
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
623 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair with below normal temps today as weak surface high
pressure slides towards the coast. A front coming through
Wednesday afternoon and evening could provide a slight chance of
light showers for some areas. Fair and slightly cooler
Thursday. Weak surface high pressure will generally remain over
or near our vicinity Friday through Monday. Fair weather
generally expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure over the forecast area will be slowly
drifting east of the area this afternoon and evening. This will
keep a relatively dry air mass in place with some cirrus
drifting across the region. After the cool start to the day the
clear skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to
quickly recover into the mid 60s by midday. As the ridge of high
pressure slides to the coast winds will become southerly and
begin slowly pushing moisture back into the region. With plenty
of dry air in the low levels do not expect any cumulus to
develop just some cirrus drifting over the area. With the clear
skies and light southerly winds expect afternoon highs a couple
degrees below normal in the low to mid 70s. With sunset expect
winds to become light and variable however there will be
additional mid and upper level clouds moving into the forecast
area overnight ahead of an approaching front. This will keep
temperatures several degrees warmer with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temp recovery back to near normal expected Wednesday in a SW
low level flow developing ahead of a cold front that is progged
to slowly come through late afternoon/evening. Limited moisture
with this front as the Gulf of Mexico does not get a good tap
due to a surface ridge axis extending west along much of the
Gulf Coast. However, latest GFS/EC ensemble means continue to
suggest a slight chance of light shower activity possible, with
NBM POPs remaining low however. Decided to indicate a slight
chance POP for some areas due to a preponderance of the
guidance. Surface high pressure will ridge down the Eastern
Seaboard into our region Thursday behind the front which appears
will stall to our south. Current indications are that any
precip associated with the front will stay to our south
Thursday. Slightly cooler temps Thursday due to some weak cool
air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure axis to generally remain over our
vicinity Friday/Saturday, with the old front stalled just to our
south and west. An upper ridge axis will shift east over the
region. Some model guidance indicating some increasing
atmospheric moisture and possibility of either some weak
isentropic lift and/or enough low level moisture return and
surface convergence near the stalled front which could promote
some shallow showers developing under the subsidence inversion,
aided by diurnal heating. However, latest NBM POPs remain low.
Not enough confidence to introduce POPs but this continues to be
an item of uncertainty and subject to some change going
forward. Upper ridge expected to shift offshore early next week,
with appearance of a cold front and associated precip chance,
approaching just beyond the current forecast period. Generally
near normal temps expected Fri/Sat, with a slight warming trend
Sun/Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy fog possible through 12z then VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period.

Patchy fog has developed over area rivers and lakes and remained
with a tempo at AGS/OGB possible through 12z for the variable
conditions. High pressure ridge over the area will move to the
coast today and offshore tonight. This will keep some cirrus
clouds crossing the region however with dry air in the low
levels do not expect any cumulus to develop today. Winds will
remain variable at 4 knots or less will continue through 16z
then become southerly around 7 knots into the evening hours
before returning to light and variable for the remainder of the
period. Potential for fog tonight remains too low to include.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$