Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 260351
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1151 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across the lower great Lakes on
Thursday. A cold front will move east across the region later
on Friday with a secondary cold front early Saturday. High
pressure will expand across the Ohio Valley and southeast states
by early next week providing a southwest flow of much warmer
air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds have expanded across the snowbelt. With the north wind
the clouds will drift south into Medina and Summit and Portage
counties in the early morning hours. The areas from around
Youngstown/warren and east across NW PA will remain cloudy.
Made some minor changes to the hourly sky cover overnight.
Removed the mention of showers from NW PA as it seems the odds
of measurable rain are slim at this point. No other changes for
the late evening/overnight update.

Original NEAR TERM Discussion...
Upper level trough will move east of the region tonight with
cloud cover gradually decreasing from west to east. Sunshine is
already occurring across NW Ohio. So with skies clearing from
west to east, a wet ground and light winds we may be setting the
stage for some thicker fog across the western County Warning
Area. Have not hit it all that hard in the grids at this point
but later shifts will need to watch this potential.

High pressure will weaken as an area of low pressure tracks
eastward across the Tennessee River Valley to the East Coast.
This low may push a few clouds northward toward the area late in
the night but the region should remain dry.

Lows will continue to be slightly below seasonal averages
tonight and Thursday night. Highs on Thursday in the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fairly active short term period expected, with below normal
temperatures through the weekend. Low pressure over Virginia Friday
morning will move northeast along the Atlantic coast through the
day. Models continue to trend farther east with the low track, which
will leave the local area dry from this system, and have removed
pops across the eastern part of the area for Friday morning. The
next system of interest is a quick moving cold front/trough
associated with low pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes
region. Models depicting scattered precip moving east across the
area from late morning through the afternoon. Have low to mid chance
pops with this frontal passage, as the forcing is meager across the
local area and better forcing remaining north. Temperatures Friday
are expected to warm into upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the cold
front.

A quick moving low will track east across the southern Great Lakes
Friday night into Saturday, immediately following the aforementioned
front. Models are in somewhat decent agreement, however the 12Z
ECMWF is farther south with the low track. Regardless, have mid
chance pops for the region at this point, with at least scattered
shower activity possible. At this point, will keep p-type all rain,
although thermal profiles suggest a possible mix or even brief
changeover to snow with the heavier showers. However, snow is highly
unlikely as the coldest air aloft doesn`t arrive until midday
Saturday and surface temperatures are expected to be in the upper
40s to near 50 across the area. High pressure will build into the
area Saturday night through Sunday, bringing dry conditions to the
region. Temperatures will again be cool on Sunday for most with the
ridge axis west or over the local area, with highs ranging from the
upper 40s across northwest PA into the upper 50s across northwest
Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extended forecast looks dry with spring like temps looming.
Large area of high pressure will be centered over The Western
Lakes Sunday evening. The high will track slowly SE and move off
the SE coast Tuesday. The early part of next week looks sunny
with above normal temps. Temps should warm into the mid to upper
60s on Monday, and into the 70s on Tuesday. Normal highs for
this time of year are in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure and dry air will continue building into the area
overnight but under the inversion low MVFR/IFR stratus was
expanding across northeast OH and nwrn PA. Will keep this
stratus through the night and allow for quick dissipation
Thursday morning. Otherwise skies are clear west. Some concern
about developing fog through the overnight and have brought in
MVFR/IFR visibilities most areas although confidence is mid
range.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers Friday into Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push east of Lake Erie this evening, with high
pressure building in from the west. A fleeting tight gradient will
be present over the central part of the lake for a few hours this
evening, with north/northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5
feet. Will continue the small craft advisory from Vermilion to
Ripley for the same valid time, although the waves may come
down a bit earlier than 4 AM as the gradient relaxes and winds
become more westerly. High pressure will continue to build
across the lake Thursday and Thursday night before a cold front
moves east across the lake on Friday. Low pressure will quickly
follow and move east across the lake Saturday, with winds
becoming generally northwest through the rest of the weekend
around 10 knots or less. High pressure will build east across
the lake Sunday through Monday, with winds becoming southwest
Sunday night and increasing through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Mullen
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Greenawalt



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