696
FXUS64 KEPZ 052046
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
246 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Warm and breezy conditions will continue with winds peaking on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Combined with very dry conditions, the fire
danger will be high. We see a decrease in winds from Thursday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

An upper level trough covers the western half of the CONUS this
afternoon with an elongated low covering roughly the state of NV.
The parent low will do a cyclonic rotation over the Northern
Rockies through much of the period. This pattern will keep us at
the best of the long-wave trough and at the southern end of the
H500 jet. Persistent lee troughing will result though the location
for the center of the low will vary across the Central and
Southern High Plains. We will stay breezy to low-end windy each
afternoon as a result. A more notable trough passes tonight into
tomorrow morning, which will keep east slope locations breezy
tonight. Tuesday looks to be the breeziest day as another s/w
passes to our north during the afternoon. Wednesday will be a
nudge lower than Tuesday. The main impact will be high fire
danger. Temperatures will be near or just above seasonal normals
though added breezes will keep morning lows above normal.

On Thursday, the Desert SW will still be at the base of this
persistent long-wave trough while the same parent low mentioned
above continues its tour of the Intermountain West. The main
difference for Thursday will be a cooler air mass that will push
down the plains, inhibiting lee troughing forcing a broad surface
trough axis to form across the SW quadrant of NM. The weak
pressure gradient will weaken winds, allowing just some modest
afternoon breezes.

As has maddeningly been the case, models show the cooler, more
moist air mass pushing into the CWA on Friday before retreating
back to the east in the afternoon, doing the same thing on
Saturday. At the same time, our vacationing UL low begins pivoting
to the southwest, providing some dynamics both Friday and
Saturday. Wherever this moisture and dynamics interplays, there
may be at least isolated thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I find
myself very skeptical our CWA will maintain sufficient moisture
for precip. How many discussions have I written now commenting on
models bringing in moisture in the day 6-9 time frame only for it
to never materialize? Add this one to the count. Maybe this time,
it will be correct, but even then, far eastern areas would be
favored. Indeed, NBM has some low POPs for the Sacs and eastern
border for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions expected though there is a slight risk for BLDU at
TAF sites, with an attendant risk for category reductions.
Otherwise, skies are expected to be SKC-FEW250. Winds will become
breezy this afternoon, topping out 15-25 kts with some gusts to 25
knots. Direction starts more SW`LY (200-230) but will become more
westerly this afternoon and into the evening hours. Breezy
conditions will continue into the overnight hours as well. LLWS
may be a factor at all sites, especially LRU and ELP.

Overnight winds are a bit uncertain for ELP. Speeds will be close
to AWW criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

We will continue to see a stretch of near critical to critical
fire conditions with periods of extremely critical, especially
Tuesday.

The air mass that brought good to excellent moisture recoveries to
the eastern half of the CWFA has retreated back to the east with
another afternoon of very low min RH values anticipated. Overnight
tonight, a Pacific front will sweep through which will bring
modest cooling and slightly better min RH values tomorrow
afternoon. Nevertheless, min RH values will still fall below 15
percent and combine with afternoon winds around 20 MPH to create
critical fire concerns. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect. RFTI
values for Monday will range 3 to 6, with the lower end assuming
winds will fall just short of 20 MPH.

On Tuesday, winds increase some for the entire area while min RH
values fall a few points. This will lead to more widespread
critical to locally extreme fire concerns as Max RFTI values will
be as high as 8. A fire weather watch is in effect though winds
will be a bit more borderline within our Texas zones. Red flag
conditions are more likely to be met across higher elevations and
east slope areas within Texas. Wednesday looks to be similar to
Tuesday, so more fire headlines will likely be issued over the
coming days. Finally by Thursday, winds subside enough to
alleviate fire concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  86  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  81  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               55  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               54  82  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  58  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  83  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              45  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   50  81  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  79  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  83  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                53  84  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             54  88  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               54  76  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   55  85  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  81  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            52  82  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    54  84  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  48  70  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                46  69  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 42  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  45  74  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                49  80  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                50  83  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             41  72  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   44  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    47  78  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  73  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  47  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  81  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  50  81  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           49  82  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               46  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown