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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262133
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
333 PM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep in from the east overnight tonight,
bringing gusty winds, especially along west slopes of mountains
and much cooler temperatures to the Borderland for Friday.
Moisture begins to move up from the south Saturday, for a chance
of thunderstorms most areas. An upper low moves across the central
Rockies Monday, bringing strong winds and blowing dust to the
desert areas. Another upper low moves across northern New Mexico
Wednesday, for another round of strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Backdoor front now into SE New Mexico and should be reaching the
eastern CWA next few hours. Models still showing strong level flow
with the front...h85 winds of 35-50 mph...so wind advisory tonight
looks good. Strongest winds should be along west slopes of
mountains. Expect front to reach El Paso mid evening and then out
to the Arizona border by daybreak Friday. Behind the front,
dewpoints will rise modestly, but low level look shows RH increase
limited mostly the Sac Mountains. Some low cloud development
likely behind the front but mostly over the Sacs.

Friday and Saturday...a weak disturbance aloft will move to the
western CWA Friday for a slight chance of thunderstorms west of
Deming. On Saturday a slightly stronger disturbance moves to the
CWA from the west. Stronger dryline boundary and surface
convergence line sets up on Saturday from about Deming east, so a
better chance of thunderstorms east of Deming. Models showing very
little in the way of CAPE or shear values, so not expecting
particularly strong storms.

Sunday and Monday...next upper low travels across the Great Basin
to the central Rockies by Monday night. Little moisture with this
feature but will tighten surface pressure gradient up, with gusty
winds both afternoons. Monday looks to be a bit stronger but
likely just below advisory criteria.

Tuesday and Wednesday...another upper low travels eastward, this
one further south than previous one. Low should be over southern
California Tuesday and over eastern Arizona Wednesday. Expect
windy days both days, but again should remain just below wind
advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z...
VFR conds thru period. P6SM BKN- OVC250 thru 12Z and SCT-
BKN100-120 OVC250 after 12Z. Back door cold front moves west with
N to NE winds behind it, between 10 to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts
with strongest winds on the western slopes of area mountains 03Z
THRU 12Z. After 18Z winds become more S to SE generally 5 to 15
kts thru the rest of the forecast period.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER...
A back door front will bring gusty east winds to the region
overnight with strongest winds along west facing slopes. In
addition, this front will bring cooler temps and an increase in
moisture allowing for min rh values above 20 percent for the next
couple of days. There will also be a slight chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Higher terrain will
have the best chances for seeing some wetting precip. However there
may also be a few storms that result in dry lightning thru Saturday.

Westerly winds will return by early next week and will become rather
gusty as the week wears on. At the same time drier and warmer
conditions will be returning. Thus periods of critical fire weather
conditions will be possible early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 55  75  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca           51  72  52  81 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces              54  74  54  82 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              51  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft              36  58  38  61 /   0  10   0  30
Truth or Consequences   53  75  53  81 /   0   0   0  20
Silver City             48  71  48  78 /  10  10  20  20
Deming                  55  74  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               56  78  52  84 /   0  10  20   0
West El Paso Metro      58  73  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               48  75  49  83 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            56  76  55  85 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              45  72  48  82 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                  52  75  50  85 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa            53  74  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          58  73  59  81 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           50  74  48  82 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   49  76  47  84 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                56  76  52  85 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               56  74  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                 35  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  30
Mescalero               35  67  39  70 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                33  64  34  69 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                 34  73  36  79 /   0  20  20  30
Hillsboro               48  74  47  82 /   0  10  10  30
Spaceport               47  74  47  82 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts            36  73  37  80 /  10  20  20  30
Hurley                  47  71  45  80 /   0  10  20  20
Cliff                   39  77  37  82 /  10  10  20  20
Mule Creek              39  77  38  82 /  10  20  20  10
Faywood                 47  71  46  81 /   0  10  10  20
Animas                  57  80  51  85 /   0  10  20   0
Hachita                 55  78  49  85 /   0  10  10   0
Antelope Wells          57  79  52  84 /   0  10  10   0
Cloverdale              55  79  49  84 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     NMZ411-413-417.

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Hefner/Laney



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