Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241930
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
330 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening front oriented east to west across the area will
provide a focus for storms through Friday. This weekend, low
pressure will move north into the central Gulf of Mexico, and
spread tropical moisture into the Carolinas. The chance for showers
and thunderstorms will increase Sunday into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM Thursday...Significant and hazardous convection will
mostly shift S and W of the forecast area coincident with the best
low level convergence. Isolated convection will linger over SE NC
and NE SC into late afternoon, or even the early evening, but
diminishing trends expected as low-level cooling spreads deeper
inland and diurnal cooling sets in. The ocean may become more active
aft 6z as diurnal buoyancy increases and isolated convection may
impinge the coast and Cape Fear near or prior to daybreak. Because
of the surface boundary across roughly the Santee River of NE SC,
and that it may lift a bit north overnight, have kept mentionable
shower chances intact for the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Continuation of an unsettled pattern with
showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid airmass. High pressure
offshore will be the dominant feature at least through Saturday
night, with flow between this high and a developing area of low
pressure in the GOM driving deep southerly flow and moisture laden
air into the Carolinas. In a pattern that seems to be inexorably
repeating itself this month, PWATs climb above 1.75 inches and
tropical showers are possible through the period. Note that guidance
brings a brief period of drier air into the region Saturday evening,
which combined with the potential for subsidence aloft due to
confluence north of the upper ventilation atop invest-90, should
reduce convective coverage latter half of the period. Still, showers
with isolated tstms will remain in the forecast through the short
term, with highest POP and best chance for any heavy rain being
across inland zones. Temps will remain well above climo, mid to
upper 80s for highs Saturday, with lows remaining above 70 at the
coast, upper 60s well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...The pattern through the extended period
will remain very moist and supportive of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day. Precipitable water values
will surge in excess of 2 inches on Sunday and for the most
part, remain that way through Thursday. Similar to the several
days, this moist airmass will be fed by deep southerly flow
between Bermuda high pressure, and a trough axis along the
Mississippi River Valley extending into the Gulf of Mexico. A
contributing factor will be the northward progression of a
possible tropical or sub-tropical low pressure system through
the Gulf of Mexico. Although direct impacts from this potential
tropical system are not currently expected for our forecast
area, this feature will ensure a continued feed of tropical
moisture across the eastern Carolinas.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 17Z...A cold front will move S across the southern terminals
this afternoon. Showers have become isolated from KLBT to KILM.
Despite a possible tempo shower this afternoon, best confidence at
KLBT, expect VFR these terminals through the afternoon with NE-E
winds. At the southern terminals the best shower/thunderstorm
development should be from KMYR to S of KFLO. By mid afternoon all
activity should be well S of the southern terminals. Will maintain
VFR/VCSH through early afternoon at the southern terminals, and will
include VCTS/sub-VFR only if radar at issuance time indicates an
immediate threat.

Overnight, IFR possible as fog develops. Densest fog most likely at
KFLO where humidities will be highest. The remaining terminals
should be worse case MVFR. VFR Friday morning except KFLO which my
not reach VFR until around 14Z. Winds will be SE.

Extended outlook...VFR except for morning patchy MVFR/IFR in fog.
Tropical moisture will be returning to the area Sun-Tue with more
widespread thunderstorms with periods of IFR ceilings/visibility
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...Generally an E wind overnight, but may
fluctuate ESE to ENE due to proximity of a weak frontal boundary
near by in a meandering mode. Winds however should remain
capped at about 15 kt and no advisory or headline needed. Seas
2-3 feet in a mix of SE waves every 8 seconds and light to
moderate chop. A radar update is advisable if venturing out, as
several TSTMS will roam about late tonight into early Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Southerly winds around offshore high
pressure will persist into the weekend. The gradient will remain
relatively light, so wind speeds will briefly increase to 10-15 kts
Saturday evening, but will otherwise be around 10 kts through the
period. Seas will be formed through a combination of a deamplifying
8 sec swell and a growing 5-6 sec southerly wind wave, especially at
the end of the period. This will produce significant seas of 2-3 ft
Friday night and Saturday, with subtle growth to 2-4 ft Saturday
night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Southerly flow will persist across the
waters Sunday into Monday night between Bermuda high pressure
and a low pressure system that will be moving northward through
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will depend on how much
the low is able to develop in the Gulf, but the persistent
southerly fetch and strengthening gradient should support winds
increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday, and seas building to 5 to 7
feet. By Tuesday, models suggest the gradient will weaken a
bit, which would allow winds to diminish to 10 to 15 knots, and
seas to slowly subside. Uncertainty is higher than usual at this
point, however, due to the potential for the Gulf low to
develop into a tropical cyclone.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR



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