Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 211927
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
327 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push slowly east across the Great Lakes
region through Sunday. This will provide for dry conditions and
slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. An
upper level low pressure system moving out of the Mississippi
Valley will bring a chance of showers for the start of the work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
H5 ridge will remain across the region, but will become elongated
overnight. This is in response to an upper low working slowly east
through the srn plains. Mid and upper clouds will continue to spill
down into the region tonight, producing mostly cloudy conditions.
This will keep temperatures warmer than the past few nights. Expect
lows to range from the upper 30s in the far north to the mid 40s in
nrn KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The H5 low out in the srn plains will continue to drift east on
Sunday. Upper ridge across the region continues to gets squeezed,
but manages to remain over the fa. thicker part of the cirrus clouds
shift south during the day Sunday, providing a some hints of
sunshine. Temperatures will get close to normals as they reach the
mid 60s, and maybe the upper 60s in the southeast.

Sunday night the rain associated with the upper low starts to
lift north. Consensus of the models to keep the region dry, so
removed the slight chance PoPs across the far south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level low will approach and meander around the area Monday
through Wednesday.  This will allow for extensive cloud cover.  Off
and on rain showers will be present during this time.  There is some
instability along and south of the Ohio River on Tuesday and
therefore have a chance of thunderstorms in across this area during
this time.

High pressure will then be present Thursday into Friday morning.
Went close to the slower ECMWF solution with a system moving through
Friday night into Saturday bringing additional showers to the region.

High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s through the
extended.  Lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s across most
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 ridge will remain across the region, but will become
elongated over the next 24 hours as an upper low slowly works
east through the srn plains.

Mid clouds will affect the nrn tafs during first part of the
period, with high clouds affecting the rest of the tafs. The mid
clouds will move east of the nrn tafs by 00-03Z, leaving only
cirrus for the rest of night.

The nrn edge of the cirrus band drops south after 12Z Sunday,
allowing the nrn tafs to go scattered.


OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into
Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Sites



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