804
FXUS64 KMAF 060739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The pleasantly cool day that we experienced yesterday is now only
a memory, with the start of a significant warming trend today
that will see above normal temperatures return areawide,
continuing through midweek. Per latest water vapor imagery and RUC
analysis, a deepening trough is currently translating eastward
from the Great Basin toward the Central Rockies, beginning to
develop a subtle negative tilt. This trough has deepened a bit
more than previously indicated by model guidance, and while the
core of the trough`s attendant jet remains to the north of the
area, speeds around 50kt at 700 hPa are expected to result in high
winds across the Guadalupe Mountains, evidenced by the
development of a mountain wave signature by late this morning.
Unlike other wind events, these winds will largely be isolated to
the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains and Guadalupe
Pass, with potential gusts at the highest elevations reaching
70-75 mph. Thus, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and while breezy conditions are
expected elsewhere, wind speeds are currently expected to remain
below advisory criteria.

The southwesterly to westerly winds today will yield a quick
rebound to above normal temperatures, with sunny skies expected
areawide by lunch time. Compressional warming with full insolation
will allow temperatures to top out in the upper 80s and 90s for
most, with triple digits returning along the Rio Grande in the Big
Bend. As the aforementioned trough swings into the northern
Plains tonight, zonal flow aloft will persist over Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas, and given a majority of low-level moisture
will be shunted to the east and southeast, lows tonight will drop
into the upper 40s northwest to 60s southeast in response to the
drier air filtering into the region. Another warm day is ahead
Tuesday, with highs similar to today, albeit a degree or two
warmer in some spots, topping out in the upper 80s and 90s once
again, with lower 100s along the Rio Grande.

The forecast through the short term is dry, and unfortunately,
the return of very dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and
increased winds will also yield near critical and critical fire
weather conditions. Fire weather concerns are greatest for areas
that missed out on beneficial rainfall over the past week or two,
mainly from Southeast New Mexico south to the Davis Mountains. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for these areas today, and a Fire
Weather Watch on Tuesday, discussed further in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Quasi-zonal flow and subtle mid-level ridging continue Tuesday
night through Thursday, with highs and lows warmer than average
for early May, with sunny skies and westerly downsloping winds
each afternoon. High winds in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains
as well as the surrounding foothills are possible both Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons. The upper low that lifted into the
northern Great Plains at the beginning of the week will merge with
a trough entering the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will lead to the trough dividing into two lobes of
vorticity, with one of these being an open trough across the Great
Lakes and the other being an upper low meandering over the Great
Basin. As this occurs and the trough over the Great Lakes moves
east, a surface cold front will be pushed south through the area
on Thursday. Highs fall several degrees below average north of the
cold front, with highs remaining a few degrees warmer than
average south of the front. The front clears the area by Friday
with below average highs and lows and easterly flow continuing
into next week, albeit with a warming trend beginning Sunday. The
upper low over the Great Basin will transition upper flow to
southwesterly across the southern Great Plains by Sunday, allowing
for development of lee troughing, and southeasterly surface winds
east of lee troughing advecting in increased moisture. Around the
upper low over the Great Basin, disturbances may propagate into
the Great Plains, providing lift for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over portions of the area. However, synoptic and
mesoscale details this far out could change, so we are leaving out
any further mention of rain until there is better agreement
regarding position, strength, and track of disturbances and
magnitude of moisture return.

Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be warmer than average and
in the 60s aside from 50s in the higher elevations and
northernmost SE NM plains and Permian Basin. Widespread 90s and
80s in the higher elevations are forecast Wednesday with triple
digits readings near the Rio Grande. On Thursday, highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s north of the cold front are expected, with
highs remaining in the 90s, 80s in higher elevations south of the
front. Friday will likely be the coolest day of the long term,
with highs in the 70s and 80s, and 90s confined to along the Rio
Grande. Friday night will feature lows in the 50s as far south as
the Rio Grande valleys, with 40s in the highest elevations across
West Texas and northernmost portions of the area also possible.
Saturday remains cooler than average but with more widespread 80s.
Lows Saturday night will be similar to Friday night but with more
southeasterly rather than easterly winds bringing lows closer to
normal. Sunday highs will be even warmer than Saturday although
still a few degrees below normal, and similarly Monday highs will
be warmer than Sunday and near normal. Lows Sunday night and
Monday night will be similar to Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR ceilings are once again developing across the region,
already impacting CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF at issuance. However,
the low ceilings will much more short-lived, with improvement to
VFR expected at CNM, HOB, and INK prior to daybreak, and MAF
following suit around 14Z-15Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions will
prevail areawide. Southeasterly winds tonight will veer to the
southwest by mid-morning, then more to the west by afternoon,
with gusts to 25-35kt common. Gusts will gradually diminish after
07/00Z for all but CNM, where gusty winds look to continue through
the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Recent wetting rains over the western Permian Basin to the Davis
Mountains and east of the Pecos River have helped to reduce ERCs
in these regions. However, ERCs at or above the 70th percentile
and critically dry fuels persist west of the Pecos River due to
lack of recent wetting rains west of the Pecos River. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect this afternoon through this evening for the
Sacramento Foothills, SE NM plains, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains,
Davis Mountains Foothills, Culberson County, and upper Trans
Pecos due to widespread min RH as low as 5 percent, sustained
westerly winds above 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph and higher in
the higher elevations, mostly sunny skies, above normal
temperatures in the 80s and 90s, and RFTIs of 5 to 7. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday for the same areas today`s
Red Flag Warning covers. Critical fire weather conditions are
likely for westernmost portions of the area through Thursday as
min critical RH, poor overnight recovery, above normal
temperatures, and gusty, westerly, downsloping winds continue.

A cold front moving in from the north Thursday will reduce fire
risk north of the front, with fire risk continuing over higher
elevations of West Texas south of the front. Behind the front
Friday, better overnight recovery, increased moisture and clouds,
and cooler temperatures will limit fire risk everywhere into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  55  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 89  53  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   97  64  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            93  60  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           80  55  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    86  50  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    87  48  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     91  56  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   90  57  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     93  55  95  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-
     Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84